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Major Trend Index

Sep 08 2018

Breakout Or Fake-Out?

  • Sep 8, 2018

The S&P 500 has fully erased its January and February losses, but there’s probably a market message in the fact that it took so long to do so.

Sep 05 2018

MTI: Market Sentiment Is Overconfident

  • Sep 5, 2018

The Attitudinal category neared a new negative extreme for the rally off February lows, while the Intrinsic Value category reached a new extreme for the entire bull market. This combination of overvaluation and overconfidence will eventually be resolved with large market losses…

Aug 28 2018

MTI: Modest Gains In Three Categories

  • Aug 28, 2018

Daily and weekly versions of all the advance/decline lines we track stood at cycle highs at week’s end, which—alongside the high in the Value Line Arithmetic Average—makes it hard to argue the market has narrowed significantly.

Aug 21 2018

MTI: No Major Swings

  • Aug 21, 2018

Improvement in the Momentum work has been insufficient to offset weakness elsewhere, leaving the weight of the evidence still bearish. However, persistent strength in this category has been enough to discourage us from establishing additional equity hedges in our tactical funds.

Aug 14 2018

MTI: Confidence Builds As S&P Flirts With High

  • Aug 14, 2018

The Attitudinal-category reading has moved to a six-month extreme as the S&P 500 flirts with its January high; improvement in the Economic work continues to reflect the pullback in various commodity measures.

Jul 24 2018

MTI: Sentiment Continues To Build

  • Jul 24, 2018

Sentiment toward stocks continues to heat up. Our S&P 500 Liquidity Premium shows that speculation in individual stocks is picking up relative to ETF trading, a negative sign. In addition, activity in stock index options shows the “smart money” rebuilding a bearish position.

 

Jul 10 2018

MTI: Inflation Measures Retreat

  • Jul 10, 2018

Our 52-week diffusion index on a 70-commodity basket now registers essentially neutral, while all of the non-energy commodity price sub-models have improved.

Jul 03 2018

MTI: Market Not As Healthy Under The Surface

  • Jul 3, 2018

We’d concede that neither the relative strength of Small Caps nor the divergently strong action of the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line fit the pattern of a stock market undergoing a late-cycle period of distribution, however, the relatively low percentage of NYSE issues now trading above their 30-week moving averages (45.5%) suggests the market may not be as internally healthy as popularly portrayed.

Jun 26 2018

MTI Suggests Risks Still Elevated

  • Jun 26, 2018

After several weeks of muted movements, three MTI categories saw swings of more than 60 points. The Supply/Demand category’s loss was the biggest move, and mostly reflected commercial hedgers’ sudden unwinding of a big net-long position in stock index futures. Such action causes this important “smart money” indicator to be more in line with the DJIA’s Smart Money Flow Index, which continues to act badly.

Jun 19 2018

MTI: Market Behavior Remains Disjointed

  • Jun 19, 2018

Performance discontinuities across some of the major indexes are striking. For example, while the NASDAQ Composite is up 12% YTD, the NYSE Composite is down 1%, despite those strong A/D readings for the latter index. Today’s action leaves a similar gap between the Russell 2000 (up 10% YTD) and the DJIA (unchanged).

Jun 12 2018

MTI: Big Attitudinal Drop

  • Jun 12, 2018

The decline in the attitudinal work was fairly broad based, with a few indicators even moving back to maximum negative readings.

Jun 07 2018

Is Market Breadth Misleading?

  • Jun 7, 2018

The stock market has narrowed, but not in the way we envisioned—nor in a way that’s consistent with most historical bull market tops. Small Caps and market breadth measures are traditionally the first to wilt when monetary tightening begins to hit the stock market. Instead, they are the leaders.

Jun 05 2018

MTI: Sentiment Measures Decline

  • Jun 5, 2018

A sharp loss in the Attitudinal category reflects declines in all major groupings of sentiment measures, ranging from investor opinion surveys, to fund flows, to option trading activity.

May 30 2018

MTI: Supply/Demand Measures Deteriorate

  • May 30, 2018

Supply/Demand work experienced the week’s largest category loss and reflects declines in the Smart Money Flow Index (which tracks opening and closing action in the DJIA) and in our Institutional Accumulation measure, which compares up and down volume to prevailing price action.

May 22 2018

MTI: Daily A/D Numbers Suggest Strength

  • May 22, 2018

The daily advance/decline numbers suggest the recent bounce has been broad, but analyses based on the 52-week highs and lows (including various versions of the “High/Low Logic Index”) are flashing warning signals similar to the ones seen in the fall of 2007 and summer of 2015.

Apr 17 2018

MTI: Monetary And Liquidity Work Deteriorates

  • Apr 17, 2018

While we’ve always emphasized the importance of the “weight of the evidence” over the individual MTI factor categories, it’s worth highlighting some key differences between the 2018 correction (which saw a loss in the S&P 500 of 10.2% at the February 8th closing low) and the 2015-2016 S&P 500 correction of 14.2%.

Apr 10 2018

MTI: Momentum Remains Surprisingly Solid

  • Apr 10, 2018

It’s mystifying that the Momentum work has not deteriorated further during the course of this correction. Despite the -9.3% S&P 500 loss through Friday’s close, the net category reading remains at a moderately bullish level.

Mar 29 2018

Change In Market Character

  • Mar 29, 2018

The Major Trend Index fell into its negative zone last week and we trimmed the already below-average net equity exposure in tactical accounts by a few more points, to a current 41-42%.

Mar 13 2018

MTI: Momentum Rebounds

  • Mar 13, 2018

The Momentum category rebounded 49 points last week, reflecting small gains across most of the quantitative chart scores…

 

Feb 27 2018

MTI: Attitudinal Strengthens Further

  • Feb 27, 2018

Subjectively, we sense that investor sentiment has rebounded (too?) rapidly following the stock market’s air pocket earlier this month. Statistically, though, we’ve found that many of our sentiment measures perform better when the observations are smoothed using various moving average lengths.

Feb 13 2018
Jan 30 2018

MTI: Economic & Attitudinal Deterioration

  • Jan 30, 2018

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Jan 22 2018
Jan 17 2018

MTI: Stock Market In Melt-Up Mode

  • Jan 17, 2018

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Jan 09 2018

MTI: Momentum Surges

  • Jan 9, 2018

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Jan 03 2018

MTI: Major Breadth Measures At New Highs

  • Jan 3, 2018

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Dec 27 2017

MTI: Momentum Declines, But Remains Bullish

  • Dec 27, 2017

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Dec 20 2017

MTI: Momentum Strong; Sentiment Heating Up

  • Dec 20, 2017

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Dec 12 2017

MTI: Supply/Demand Reversed Some Recent Gains

  • Dec 12, 2017

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Dec 05 2017

MTI: Momentum & Supply/Demand Improve Again

  • Dec 5, 2017

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Nov 28 2017

MTI: New Cycle Highs In Weekly/Daily Breadth Measures

  • Nov 28, 2017

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Nov 14 2017

MTI: DJIA Big Divergence with DJ Transports

  • Nov 14, 2017

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Oct 31 2017

MTI: Momentum Has Never Been This Strong For This Long

  • Oct 31, 2017

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Oct 24 2017

MTI: Breadth Of Overvaluation Greater Than 2000 Peak

  • Oct 24, 2017

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Oct 17 2017

MTI: Stocks "In Sync" Like 1997

  • Oct 17, 2017

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Oct 10 2017

MTI: Valuations Can Move Even Higher

  • Oct 10, 2017

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Oct 03 2017

MTI: Valuation Work Continues To Erode

  • Oct 3, 2017

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Sep 26 2017

MTI: Momentum Declined Despite New Bull Highs

  • Sep 26, 2017

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Sep 19 2017
Sep 12 2017

Improved Reading Due To Economic & Supply/Demand Work

  • Sep 12, 2017

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