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Median Valuations

Jun 07 2023

A Look At Where Rate Hikes Are “Working”

  • Jun 7, 2023

Speculative spirits are back, and the index that’s suddenly close to its 2021 high is the one we viewed as the epicenter of the mania—the NY FANG+® Index!

Feb 05 2022

Easy Money? Not In Small Caps

  • Feb 5, 2022

One might have predicted that big beneficiaries of war-time-style levels of federal spending, financed by money printing, would be Small Cap stocks. And from March 2020 until March 2021, they were. But the larger picture is sobering. 

Jan 07 2022

A Squandered Small-Cap Opportunity?

  • Jan 7, 2022

We know our view on this is controversial, but we like the relative prospects for Small Caps—even though we still believe the broad stock market is currently the most speculative one in U.S. history. 

Jun 05 2021

A Small-Cap Theory Of Relativity?

  • Jun 5, 2021

Small Cap median valuations are among the highest in our 40-year database, but they are bottom quintile versus the nose-bleed level of the median Large Cap. If this Small Cap leadership cycle only matches the shortest one on record, it will last another three years. Based on the valuation gap, that guess seems conservative.

May 07 2021

New Era Valuations?

  • May 7, 2021

We understand the various rationale for the upward shift in equity valuations seen over the last quarter century or so. Unfortunately, wiping away all market history prior to 1995 does not make stock valuations appear significantly less inflated. 

Mar 05 2021

If You Like TINA, You Should Love “SAMARA!”

  • Mar 5, 2021

Equity investors have had a multi-year love affair with TINA—the belief that “There Is No Alternative” to stocks in a world of ridiculously-low interest rates. This TINA romance has carried on so long that the S&P 500 is nearing valuations last seen in the Tech bubble’s final inning. If the fling with TINA has become prohibitively expensive, we’d like to introduce “SAMARA.”

Oct 09 2020

Small Cap Catch-Up?

  • Oct 9, 2020

The big jump in Small Caps over the last two weeks has entirely reversed the segment’s summer underperformance and has technicians feverish about another “breath thrust.” Technically, it’s impressive, but we are more intrigued by the fundamental potential for continued Small Cap (and Mid Cap) outperformance.


May 07 2020

Median Valuations: Down, But Not Cheap

  • May 7, 2020

If we assume that valuations will “bottom” at the “richest” levels ever seen at a bear market low, there’s still 32% downside remaining in the median S&P 500 stock.