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MSCI Emerging Market

Jun 05 2021

The Global EPS Rebound

  • Jun 5, 2021

For years, we’ve noted the increasing valuation gap between domestic and foreign stocks. And for years, we contended that the most likely catalyst for a narrowing of that gap would be a recession-induced cyclical bear market in stocks. Evidently the 2020 bear market was not big enough to do the job.

Apr 08 2021

EAFE And EM: Long Past Their “Peaks?”

  • Apr 8, 2021

We applied the “Peak Cash Flow” valuation methodology to the EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets Index and found them both priced at only about one-half of today’s MSCI U.S. multiple. However, the ratios are already above anything achieved during the 2009-2020 global bull market.

Feb 07 2020

EM Equity Purgatory

  • Feb 7, 2020

Nine months ago we established a “pilot” position of 4% in Emerging Market equities in the Leuthold Core Fund, based mostly on the bullish inflection in a long-term technical indicator (VLT Momentum).

Nov 07 2019

Jury Is Still Out On EM

  • Nov 7, 2019

Emerging Market stocks have been swept up in the last month’s rally in all things cyclical and high beta. Nonetheless, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is still down marginally from its level coinciding with its April 30th VLT BUY signal.

May 07 2019

Adding EM On A Rent-To-Own Basis

  • May 7, 2019

The Major Trend Index has remained in neutral territory during the last several weeks of upside action, suggesting there remain significant fundamental and technical shortcomings beneath it all. But this precarious MTI stance didn’t preclude us from acting on a new bullish reading for Emerging Market equities at the end of April.

May 03 2019

Adding Some Emerging Markets On A “Rent-to-Own” Basis

  • May 3, 2019

Emerging Market equities have been modest underperformers during the current rally, but they’ve marshaled enough strength to trigger a new low-risk BUY signal on our VLT Momentum algorithm at the end of April.

Apr 05 2019

Bottom-Spotting In Foreign Stocks

  • Apr 5, 2019

The tale of two markets has existed for years, but now it’s getting ridiculous.

Nov 07 2018

Emerging Markets: Not Persevering, Just “Preserving”

  • Nov 7, 2018

We’ll never know how world events might have evolved had Mitt Romney won the presidential election in 2012. But thanks to the wonderment of Emerging Markets’ underperformance, we can go right back to the last days preceding that fateful election.

Jul 07 2018

Foreign Stocks “De-Coupling”

  • Jul 7, 2018

Market action has been broader and better than we expected given monetary conditions, and Small Cap strength seems to lend credence to contention that rates aren’t yet high enough to bite.

Jun 07 2017

MSCI EM Reclassification: Achiever & Aspirers

  • Jun 7, 2017

EM segments on the “Aspirer” watch list for MSCI annual market reclassification: China A-shares and Argentina. The “Achiever,” Pakistan, just recently started trading as a new member of MSCI EM Index.

Apr 07 2017

Global Valuation Checkup

  • Apr 7, 2017

Foreign equities beat the U.S. in the first quarter, but the performance gap that’s opened up since the 2007 market highs remains astounding. While foreign equity valuations (especially within EM) have rebounded from February 2016 lows, the bounce has done little to close the enormous P/E discounts relative to the U.S. market.

Sep 08 2016

EM: The Case For Waiting...

  • Sep 8, 2016

We’ve mentioned that concerns over potential seasonal weakness in September and October seem pronounced this year, perhaps because the year has so far turned out a pleasant surprise following its horrendous start.

Nov 06 2015

MSCI To Include Foreign-Listed Chinese Stocks For First Time

  • Nov 6, 2015

MSCI will soon announce the results of its semi-annual index rebalance and, for the first time, overseas-listed Chinese companies will be included in the MSCI Emerging Market and China Country Indexes.

Aug 07 2015

Emerging Markets: A Half-Off Sale!

  • Aug 7, 2015

The Chinese government’s repeated stock market intervention attempts over the past several weeks have been remarkable, and obviously antithetical to the country’s move toward a more laissez faire corporate environment.

Jul 08 2015

A Kind Word For “Forward Earnings”

  • Jul 8, 2015

Our criticism of the widespread trust in “forward earnings” has sometimes been harsh, but consider the following: the latest 12-month forward EPS estimate for the EAFE index is $122.71, virtually matching the forward estimate that was made in January 2006.

Nov 07 2014

U.S. Versus Foreign Stocks: More Of The Same

  • Nov 7, 2014

Long before the U.S. dollar began to rebound, the current bull market in global stocks had already favored “provincial” portfolio managers focusing solely on U.S. stocks.

Feb 07 2014

Polar Vortex Hits The Markets Too

  • Feb 7, 2014

The stock market kicked off 2014 with a (so far) shallow bout of weakness which we don’t consider to be the start of a new cyclical bear market or even a deep correction.

Mar 06 2013

Stock Picking Opportunities From Emerging Market ETFs

  • Mar 6, 2013

Changes in a major EM ETF’s benchmark and another big player’s new EM ETF introduction could provide stock pickers opportunities in select Emerging Markets.

May 04 2012

No Place Like Home

  • May 4, 2012

How is the U.S. stacking up relative to foreign markets since 2009 market lows?

May 04 2012

VLT And Foreign Markets

  • May 4, 2012

Exploring VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum readings in foreign markets versus the S&P 500.


Apr 04 2012

Effective Momentum Driven Sector Rotation In Emerging Markets

  • Apr 4, 2012

Momentum has proven to be an effective factor in emerging market sector rotation strategies. Even better than in U.S. markets.