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May 03 2021

Podcast #33 - Introducing the New MTI

  • May 3, 2021

We launched a revamped version of our Major Trend Index. The objective of the new methodology is to increase the flexibility, and even the subjectivity of the MTI. This approach recognizes the “subjective reality,” without forcing us into the tedium of re-weighting sub-factors if they become more or less critical as market dynamics evolve.

Apr 08 2021

Introducing The “New” MTI

  • Apr 8, 2021

We launched a revamped version of our Major Trend Index. The objective of the new methodology is to increase the flexibility, and even the subjectivity of the MTI. This approach recognizes the “subjective reality,” without forcing us into the tedium of re-weighting sub-factors if they become more or less critical as market dynamics evolve.

Apr 08 2021

The “New” MTI Debuts At High Neutral

  • Apr 8, 2021

Read this week's Major Trend.

Mar 02 2020

Interim Memo

  • Mar 2, 2020

The coronavirus epidemic/pandemic is getting the bulk of the blame for the sudden collapse in U.S. equities, and certainly qualifies as one of the few “black swans” seen in modern market history. We do not think the ultimate path of the coronavirus contagion can be analyzed at this point, and medical experts foresee possible outcomes ranging from a serious epidemic to a short burst of illness that fades with the summer weather. 

Jul 05 2019

Mid-Year Mea Culpa

  • Jul 5, 2019

The S&P 500 has rallied 9.2% in the 22 trading days since its June 3rd low, but the move hasn’t (yet) been enough to lift the Major Trend Index out of its negative zone.

Jun 07 2019

Stock Market Observations

  • Jun 7, 2019

It’s telling that the stock market rally off of the Christmas Eve lows—impressive as it was (and, for some investors, painful)—did not manage to lift the Major Trend Index beyond its neutral zone.

Dec 07 2018

It’s About Money, Not Profits

  • Dec 7, 2018

The consensus focus all year has been on the boom in U.S. corporate profits.

Sep 08 2018

Breakout Or Fake-Out?

  • Sep 8, 2018

The S&P 500 has fully erased its January and February losses, but there’s probably a market message in the fact that it took so long to do so.

Mar 29 2018

Change In Market Character

  • Mar 29, 2018

The Major Trend Index fell into its negative zone last week and we trimmed the already below-average net equity exposure in tactical accounts by a few more points, to a current 41-42%.

Mar 07 2018

The Correction That Scared No One

  • Mar 7, 2018

The setback from the January 26th market peak represents the ninth correction of 7% or more since 2009, the most ever recorded during a single cyclical bull market.

Feb 07 2018

Most Likely Just A Correction

  • Feb 7, 2018

So, what happened to the January Barometer—the old analyst’s maxim that a market gain in January portends a gain for the full year?

May 02 2017

Market Breadth Still Very Robust

  • May 2, 2017

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Mar 07 2017

A “Good Year” To Start The Year

  • Mar 7, 2017

The S&P 500 was up 6.4% YTD through March 3rd, a bit above its average annualized gain of 5.9% since 1926. In other words, 2017 would be a good year if the books were closed today.

Feb 07 2017

MTI Extends Bullish Streak

  • Feb 7, 2017

The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks.

Oct 07 2016

Only The Shadow Knows

  • Oct 7, 2016

If the above observation from almost a century ago remains on the mark (as it has for almost a century), then both the cyclical bull market and accompanying economic expansion should remain in force during the next several months.

Sep 08 2016

How Will It All End?

  • Sep 8, 2016

Last month we described ourselves as “long on equities, but light on conviction,” and that description still applies.

Jun 07 2016

Rally Extension?

  • Jun 7, 2016

We’ve boosted equity exposure twice in the past several weeks, fully cognizant that it’s not a “textbook” time to do so.

May 06 2016

Valuations: The Correction That Never Was

  • May 6, 2016

The correction failed to meaningfully “reset” any long-term valuation measures, hence, we don’t view the current environment as having much investment merit, but rather, primarily speculative appeal.

May 06 2016

“Four On The Floor”

  • May 6, 2016

Leadership, breadth, and corporate credit all staged intermediate-term breakouts, rising above their respective 40-week moving averages. In this formation, historically, S&P 500 annualized return is +15%.

May 06 2016

Sizing Up The Rally

  • May 6, 2016

While our MTI became bullish in mid-April, we can’t rule out that the rebound from February lows could be an impressive bear market rally. However, this rally sports impressive technical credentials.

May 06 2016

MTI Now Bullish, But Doubts Linger

  • May 6, 2016

The Major Trend Index reverted to its bullish zone in the week ended April 15th, following almost ten months in which the work resided in either neutral or negative territory.

Apr 07 2016

Improving Indicator Evidence

  • Apr 7, 2016

Last spring’s “Double Death Cross” in the Dow Transports and Dow Utilities had been partially reversed even before the February low, when the Dow Utilities’ 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average (thereby issuing a “Golden Cross”). The Dow Transports remain in a bear pattern based on the 50/200-day relationship, but the gap is closing fast.

Apr 07 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Apr 7, 2016

The stock market rally off the February 11th lows has been powerful enough to lift the Major Trend Index into its Neutral zone (in fact, a high-neutral ratio of 1.04), and therefore certainly deserves some level of respect.

Apr 07 2016

Has The Hook Been Set?

  • Apr 7, 2016

Two months ago, we suggested a short-term bounce in oil might prove to be the fundamental “hook” that would rationalize a bear market rally. We thought a bounce to $45 might do the trick—and oil futures essentially cooperated, reaching $41.90 on March 22nd.

Dec 08 2015

New Month, Old Worries...

  • Dec 8, 2015

While the S&P 500 had erased all but 2% of its August loss as of early December, Small Caps and the “average stock” had recouped only about half their correction losses. Not good.

Nov 06 2015

To Play The Rally, Or Not To Play?

  • Nov 6, 2015

Question: What will you do if the Major Trend Index returns to its bullish zone?

Oct 07 2015

A Bear Till Proven Otherwise

  • Oct 7, 2015

Major Trend Index remains decisively negative at 0.72. The “market action” category is the primary culprit behind this bearish tally, but we’ve also seen the Economic category deteriorate in recent months and would expect this trend to continue. This sequence is typical: Market action leads economic trends (and, we would argue, is a major cause of those trends).

Sep 09 2015

More Trouble Ahead

  • Sep 9, 2015
We now assume that a cyclical bear market in equities is underway, and have positioned our tactical portfolios with net equity exposure of just 35%.
Aug 07 2015

On High Alert

  • Aug 7, 2015

August is “National Eye Exam Month,” but this is the rare year we can confidently recommend that you skip it.

Aug 07 2015

Stock Market Observations

  • Aug 7, 2015

The U.S. stock market has largely shrugged off the latest round of worries related to China’s stock market collapse, the new down-leg in crude oil, a more hawkish tone in Fed-speak, and sizable second-quarter declines in S&P 500 sales and earnings.

Jul 14 2015
Jul 08 2015

Summer Trouble?

  • Jul 8, 2015

New late-June highs in NASDAQ, Small Caps, and key Financial groups weren’t enough to stem the past few weeks’ slide in the Major Trend Index, which has landed back in its neutral zone (1.01 reading).

Jul 08 2015

A Venerable Monetary Indicator Turned Negative

  • Jul 8, 2015

The smoothed, 26-week rate-of-change in the DJ Corporate Bond Index, a reliable indicator of monetary conditions over many different market and economic cycles, turned negative in mid-June.

May 08 2015

Flying By Instruments

  • May 8, 2015

The safest highs to sell in the stock market are “lonely” new highs. Fortunately, the April 24th bull market high in the S&P 500 was anything but, as that index enjoyed a varied swath of Large Cap, Small Cap, and foreign company (although the DJIA was a mysterious no-show).

Mar 06 2015

Another Upleg?

  • Mar 6, 2015

The stock market generated enough positive evidence by the second week of February to knock us from our comfortable perch on the fence. We covered a portion of our equity hedges on February 12th, bringing net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds up to 58% from the 50% level that had prevailed since November.

Dec 19 2014

The Major Trend Index Dropped 0.02 to 0.97 in the Latest Week

  • Dec 19, 2014

The Major Trend Index dropped 0.02 to 0.97 in the latest week, led by a steep drop in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category.

Dec 05 2014

Stuck In Neutral?

  • Dec 5, 2014

Extreme market viewpoints get the headlines, but it’s baked into our disciplines that we will (occasionally) be noncommittal.

Nov 26 2014

MTI Rose to 1.04 - High Neutral

  • Nov 26, 2014

The Major Trend Index rose 0.03 to a high neutral reading of 1.04 in the week ended November 21st, driven (unsurprisingly) by a healthy gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence work. The Core and Global Funds remained positioned with net equity exposure of about 50%, but we are prepared to cover some equity hedges if this work strengthens in the weeks ahead.

Nov 07 2014

A Game Of ‘What If?’

  • Nov 7, 2014

Considering the Major Trend improvement, new bull market highs (Nov. 6th) on the S&P 500, DJIA, and DJ Transports, we present a list of talking points we’d use if forced to make a bullish stock market case.

May 16 2014

Momentum/Breadth/Divergence Dips But Still Healthy - MTI 1.12

  • May 16, 2014

Despite last Friday’s close in the DJIA at cycle highs, the Major Trend Index for the week slipped 0.04 to 1.12.