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Jul 08 2023

A NASDAQ Conundrum

  • Jul 8, 2023

While we have an above-market weight in Technology stocks in our Select Industries portfolio, it’s doubtful that NASDAQ bulls have drawn much inspiration from these pages of late. But here’s a simple finding to potentially rectify that.

Jul 08 2023

If It’s A Bull, How Does It Stack Up?

  • Jul 8, 2023

Although we can’t claim that the 2022 decline purged the economic and stock-market excesses for another multi-year bull, there’s nothing in the action of the S&P 500, itself, that exposes its upswing as fraudulent.

Mar 07 2023

Why NASDAQ’s Gains Are A Disappointment

  • Mar 7, 2023

The run-up in Tech and the NASDAQ has been impressive, but their relative strength in recent months might be considered substandard from a “cyclically-adjusted” perspective.

Feb 07 2023

Irrationality Is Back, Right On Schedule

  • Feb 7, 2023

The hostile monetary backdrop makes recent stock market exuberance even more irrational than in early 2021. Yet, this is the middle of a seasonal window that historically boasts an elevated level of craziness: It is the year preceding a presidential election—a time when monetary and fiscal stimulus are ramped up. 

May 06 2022

History In The Making?

  • May 6, 2022

They didn’t ring a bell at the NASDAQ’s November 19th top, but shortly thereafter we wrote that the day was notable in that it was only the third time in history that a pair of our weekly Technical sub-models closed in “maximum bearish” territory at the same time.

Dec 23 2021

Can Santa Cap-Off A Stellar Year?

  • Dec 23, 2021

The S&P 500 is flirting with new all-time highs, and the news gets even better for followers of seasonal patterns: The Santa Claus rally has yet to officially begin!

Dec 17 2021

A Religious Calendar Calls For A 2022 (Market) Sabbatical

  • Dec 17, 2021

With the most speculative year in U.S. stock market history drawing to a close, we could probably all use a rest. How about a rest that lasts 12 months?

The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita year—historically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! There’s been a major financial disruption in seven of the eight Shmita years dating back to 1966:

Aug 06 2021

NASDAQ Natterings

  • Aug 6, 2021

In the week ended July 23rd, the NASDAQ accomplished a rare feat by closing at a 52-week high at the same time that more of its members were pegging 52-week New Lows than New Highs. That last occurred at the exact NASDAQ high preceding the GFC collapse; there was also a timely warning ahead of the crash of 1987.

May 07 2020

Is “NASDAQ Fever” Peaking?

  • May 7, 2020

Even casual market observers have begun to marvel at the NASDAQ’s ability to defy the rest of the stock market, and the “U.S. Exceptionalism Index” continues to go parabolic.

Apr 07 2020

NASDAQ Goes “Parabolic?”

  • Apr 7, 2020

From now ’til eternity, bullish market pundits will always be able to argue that the global spread of the coronavirus “caused” the current global recession and bear market. While the pandemic was certainly the final catalyst, these pages had been detailing the emerging cracks for over a year.

Jan 08 2019

Watching For An Internal Washout

  • Jan 8, 2019

Having monitored market internals for warning signs for longer than we care to admit, it’s refreshing to turn around and watch many of the same signals for… wait for it... BUY signals!

Sep 08 2018

Technical Difficulties

  • Sep 8, 2018

Traditional breadth measures have yet to show end-of-cycle thinning of the ranks, but some secondary measures suggest that process may be underway.

Aug 24 2018

Why So Many Lows Near A New High?

  • Aug 24, 2018

The S&P 500 has closed within a half percent of an all-time high three times this week, and the S&P 1500 Composite did make such a high on Tuesday, August 21st...

Jun 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Jun 7, 2017

After a two-month lull, stock market momentum reasserted itself in May bringing our summer S&P 500 target of 2,600 back into focus… Meanwhile, we’ve fielded several media calls about the “FANG” stocks’ large contribution to some YTD returns—but that doesn’t diminish the new highs being made elsewhere by disparate groups… NYSE Weekly A/D Line and New Highs/Lows figures also suggest the stock market isn’t yet top-heavy enough to tip over.

Jun 07 2017

A “Measured” Melt-Up

  • Jun 7, 2017

The stock market “melt up” scenario is underway but has proven less broad than we expected. Just as in the late-1990s, Technology and NASDAQ are the main subjects of investor adulation.

Feb 05 2016

NYSE “New Lows” Figures Point To “Lower Lows”…

  • Feb 5, 2016

At the August and late January S&P 500 lows, both the Daily and Weekly NYSE New Lows figures exceeded 40% of Issues Traded —a degree of downside thrust rarely seen outside of bear markets.

Dec 08 2015

The NYSE: A Timely Insider Sale

  • Dec 8, 2015

We tracked the “legal” insider actions of NYSE specialists for many years, until a crackdown on that business model early last decade rendered our old data sets virtually irrelevant.

Aug 07 2015

Too Many Highs, Too Many Lows

  • Aug 7, 2015

We’ve detailed the growing degree of stock market bifurcation, but the problem for would-be bears is that such bifurcation can reach astonishing levels (witness 1999-2000) before the market is set to peak out.

Jul 08 2015

NASDAQ Apathy?

  • Jul 8, 2015

The NASDAQ has solidified its grip on 12-month leadership, rising 11% versus a 4% loss in the NYSE Composite. A surprising feature of NASDAQ’s relative strength dominance is that is has not been accompanied by a rise in relative volume.

Apr 08 2015

Spring Fever?

  • Apr 8, 2015

We remain reluctant stock market bulls, with our disciplines supporting net equity exposure (targeting 55%) that “feels” too high based purely on instinct. We think our stay in the overcrowded bull camp will be short-lived.

Mar 06 2015

NASDAQ Now, Financials Next?

  • Mar 6, 2015

We wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 Financials require a recovery period just as long as NASDAQ's.

Jul 09 2013

Major Trend Moves To Neutral, But Not All Hope For The Bulls Is Lost

  • Jul 9, 2013

Deteriorating Technicals drove the move to Neutral, but a new positive reading in the Attitudinal category gives some hope to the bulls.

Apr 05 2013

Nothing But Clear Blue Skies Ahead? We're Not So Sure

  • Apr 5, 2013

With no obvious technical resistance left for the U.S. stock market, we’re skeptical of the “long cycle” view, primarily based on valuations and “provincial” data points.

Jan 05 2012

2011 Volatility Summary: S&P 500 And NASDAQ

  • Jan 5, 2012

Even though the major indices ended the year flat for the most part, volatility measures paint a different story.

May 06 2008

NASDAQ Ten Year ACR Now At An All-Time Low...And Heading Lower

  • May 6, 2008

Demoralizing long term returns factor into why the investing public has avoided the U.S. stock market during the last several years — even during the bull market.


Dec 05 2006

Some Erosion - But Not A Collapse - In The Wall Of Worry

  • Dec 5, 2006

The surprising restraint in investor enthusiasm has been a key pillar behind our bullish case for the stock market.

Dec 04 2005

Debunking One Myth Of The Buy And Hold Rationale

  • Dec 4, 2005

Debunking one myth of buy and hold rationale. Showing how stock market returns change if investors avoid the best and worst performing stock market days. Essentially, anything can be proven with statistics.

Apr 05 2004

NASDAQ vs. S&P Market Weights

  • Apr 5, 2004

Comparing the sector weights between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.

Mar 03 2004

Is The NASDAQ Recovery Over?

  • Mar 3, 2004

NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.

Sep 03 2003

Volatility Update…..Both Indexes Show Lower Volatility In 2003

  • Sep 3, 2003

Volatility continues to fade in the S&P but remains volatile on a historical basis.

Sep 03 2003

NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest

  • Sep 3, 2003

New NASDAQ buy signal as volume declines. NYSE short interest ratio increases again as volume and short interest both decline.

Aug 05 2003

Volatility Update…..Both Indexes Show Lower Volatility In 2003

  • Aug 5, 2003

In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.

Aug 05 2003

NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest

  • Aug 5, 2003

Both the NYSE and NASDAQ short interest ratios saw increases in July.

Jul 04 2003

“Sell In May And Go Away”

  • Jul 4, 2003

It looks like a strong first half can still lead to a good second half, unless the first half was really good.

Jul 04 2003

NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest

  • Jul 4, 2003

While the NASDAQ short interest ratio continued to decline, the NYSE ratio increased in June.

Jun 04 2003

Volatility Update…..NASDAQ Still More Volatile Than The S&P 500

  • Jun 4, 2003

In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.

Jun 04 2003

NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest

  • Jun 4, 2003

Both indicators drop to neutral in May.

May 05 2003

NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest

  • May 5, 2003

Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.

Apr 05 2003

NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest

  • Apr 5, 2003

Both ratios still bullish.

Mar 05 2003

Catching Up To The Guy Who Sold At The Market Top

  • Mar 5, 2003

Given various assumed compound rates of return, how long will it take for the investor who remained in stocks to catch the investor who shifted to T-bills at the top?