NASDAQ
Watching For An Internal Washout
Having monitored market internals for warning signs for longer than we care to admit, it’s refreshing to turn around and watch many of the same signals for… wait for it... BUY signals!
Technical Difficulties
Traditional breadth measures have yet to show end-of-cycle thinning of the ranks, but some secondary measures suggest that process may be underway.
Why So Many Lows Near A New High?
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The S&P 500 has closed within a half percent of an all-time high three times this week, and the S&P 1500 Composite did make such a high on Tuesday, August 21st...
Stock Market Observations
After a two-month lull, stock market momentum reasserted itself in May bringing our summer S&P 500 target of 2,600 back into focus… Meanwhile, we’ve fielded several media calls about the “FANG” stocks’ large contribution to some YTD returns—but that doesn’t diminish the new highs being made elsewhere by disparate groups… NYSE Weekly A/D Line and New Highs/Lows figures also suggest the stock market isn’t yet top-heavy enough to tip over.
A “Measured” Melt-Up
The stock market “melt up” scenario is underway but has proven less broad than we expected. Just as in the late-1990s, Technology and NASDAQ are the main subjects of investor adulation.
NYSE “New Lows” Figures Point To “Lower Lows”…
At the August and late January S&P 500 lows, both the Daily and Weekly NYSE New Lows figures exceeded 40% of Issues Traded —a degree of downside thrust rarely seen outside of bear markets.
The NYSE: A Timely Insider Sale
We tracked the “legal” insider actions of NYSE specialists for many years, until a crackdown on that business model early last decade rendered our old data sets virtually irrelevant.
Too Many Highs, Too Many Lows
We’ve detailed the growing degree of stock market bifurcation, but the problem for would-be bears is that such bifurcation can reach astonishing levels (witness 1999-2000) before the market is set to peak out.
NASDAQ Apathy?
The NASDAQ has solidified its grip on 12-month leadership, rising 11% versus a 4% loss in the NYSE Composite. A surprising feature of NASDAQ’s relative strength dominance is that is has not been accompanied by a rise in relative volume.
Spring Fever?
We remain reluctant stock market bulls, with our disciplines supporting net equity exposure (targeting 55%) that “feels” too high based purely on instinct. We think our stay in the overcrowded bull camp will be short-lived.
NASDAQ Now, Financials Next?
We wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 Financials require a recovery period just as long as NASDAQ's.
Major Trend Moves To Neutral, But Not All Hope For The Bulls Is Lost
Deteriorating Technicals drove the move to Neutral, but a new positive reading in the Attitudinal category gives some hope to the bulls.
Nothing But Clear Blue Skies Ahead? We're Not So Sure
With no obvious technical resistance left for the U.S. stock market, we’re skeptical of the “long cycle” view, primarily based on valuations and “provincial” data points.
2011 Volatility Summary: S&P 500 And NASDAQ
Even though the major indices ended the year flat for the most part, volatility measures paint a different story.
NASDAQ Ten Year ACR Now At An All-Time Low...And Heading Lower
Demoralizing long term returns factor into why the investing public has avoided the U.S. stock market during the last several years — even during the bull market.
Some Erosion - But Not A Collapse - In The Wall Of Worry
The surprising restraint in investor enthusiasm has been a key pillar behind our bullish case for the stock market.
Debunking One Myth Of The Buy And Hold Rationale
Debunking one myth of buy and hold rationale. Showing how stock market returns change if investors avoid the best and worst performing stock market days. Essentially, anything can be proven with statistics.
NASDAQ vs. S&P Market Weights
Comparing the sector weights between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.
Is The NASDAQ Recovery Over?
NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.
Volatility Update…..Both Indexes Show Lower Volatility In 2003
Volatility continues to fade in the S&P but remains volatile on a historical basis.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
New NASDAQ buy signal as volume declines. NYSE short interest ratio increases again as volume and short interest both decline.
Volatility Update…..Both Indexes Show Lower Volatility In 2003
In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both the NYSE and NASDAQ short interest ratios saw increases in July.
“Sell In May And Go Away”
It looks like a strong first half can still lead to a good second half, unless the first half was really good.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
While the NASDAQ short interest ratio continued to decline, the NYSE ratio increased in June.
Volatility Update…..NASDAQ Still More Volatile Than The S&P 500
In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both indicators drop to neutral in May.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios still bullish.
Catching Up To The Guy Who Sold At The Market Top
Given various assumed compound rates of return, how long will it take for the investor who remained in stocks to catch the investor who shifted to T-bills at the top?
Volatility Update…..High S&P Volatility Continues In Early 2003
Volatility in the S&P was unusually high in 2002. And now in early 2003, it appears the S&P 500 is continuing to be extremely volatile.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios reconfirming a buy signal.
Answering Client Questions
Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from January client meetings in Texas.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
NASDAQ ratio declines on increased volume. A new style this month gives the NYSE ratio more timely signals.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Highest Since 1938
YTD instances of High Volatility (50%) is still well above the 2000-2001 levels. It is, in fact, the highest volatility reading since 1938, and the fifth highest since 1900.
Consumer Confidence & The NASDAQ…..Who Leads Who?
A closer look at the relationship between Consumer Confidence and the NASDAQ over the last three years.
Steve The Technician
Last month, we had a request for technical readings on the major market indices. Being a long time card carrying member of the Market Technicians Association, I decided I should oblige.
Volatility Update…..Both S&P 500 And NASDAQ Very Volatile
October's reading the most volatile in the S&P 500 since 1938 and fifth highest over the entire history of this work.
Volatility Update…..A Wild Ride In July
S&P 500 High Volatility reading of 73% for the month is in line above the all time annual highs recorded in 1931-1933.
Volatility Update…..Seems To Be On The Rise Of Late
Volatility is still running at a pace significantly less than in 2000 and 2001, but the recent acceleration is troubling.