Research.LeutholdGroup

Traditional breadth measures have yet to show end-of-cycle thinning of the ranks, but some secondary measures suggest that process may be underway.

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The S&P 500 has closed within a half percent of an all-time high three times this week, and the S&P 1500 Composite did make such a high on Tuesday, August 21st...

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After a two-month lull, stock market momentum reasserted itself in May bringing our summer S&P 500 target of 2,600 back into focus… Meanwhile, we’ve fielded several media calls about the “FANG” stocks’ large contribution to some YTD returns—but that doesn’t diminish the new highs being made elsewhere by disparate groups… NYSE Weekly A/D Line and New Highs/Lows figures also suggest the stock market isn’t yet top-heavy enough to tip over.

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The stock market “melt up” scenario is underway but has proven less broad than we expected. Just as in the late-1990s, Technology and NASDAQ are the main subjects of investor adulation.

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At the August and late January S&P 500 lows, both the Daily and Weekly NYSE New Lows figures exceeded 40% of Issues Traded —a degree of downside thrust rarely seen outside of bear markets.

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We tracked the “legal” insider actions of NYSE specialists for many years, until a crackdown on that business model early last decade rendered our old data sets virtually irrelevant.

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We’ve detailed the growing degree of stock market bifurcation, but the problem for would-be bears is that such bifurcation can reach astonishing levels (witness 1999-2000) before the market is set to peak out.

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The NASDAQ has solidified its grip on 12-month leadership, rising 11% versus a 4% loss in the NYSE Composite. A surprising feature of NASDAQ’s relative strength dominance is that is has not been accompanied by a rise in relative volume.

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We remain reluctant stock market bulls, with our disciplines supporting net equity exposure (targeting 55%) that “feels” too high based purely on instinct. We think our stay in the overcrowded bull camp will be short-lived.

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We wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 Financials require a recovery period just as long as NASDAQ's.

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Deteriorating Technicals drove the move to Neutral, but a new positive reading in the Attitudinal category gives some hope to the bulls.

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With no obvious technical resistance left for the U.S. stock market, we’re skeptical of the “long cycle” view, primarily based on valuations and “provincial” data points.

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Even though the major indices ended the year flat for the most part, volatility measures paint a different story.

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Demoralizing long term returns factor into why the investing public has avoided the U.S. stock market during the last several years — even during the bull market.

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The surprising restraint in investor enthusiasm has been a key pillar behind our bullish case for the stock market.

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Debunking one myth of buy and hold rationale. Showing how stock market returns change if investors avoid the best and worst performing stock market days. Essentially, anything can be proven with statistics.

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Comparing the sector weights between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.

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NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.

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Volatility continues to fade in the S&P but remains volatile on a historical basis.

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New NASDAQ buy signal as volume declines. NYSE short interest ratio increases again as volume and short interest both decline.

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In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.

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Both the NYSE and NASDAQ short interest ratios saw increases in July.

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It looks like a strong first half can still lead to a good second half, unless the first half was really good.

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While the NASDAQ short interest ratio continued to decline, the NYSE ratio increased in June.

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In 2003, the NASDAQ has not been as volatile as in recent years, but is still more volatile than the S&P 500.

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Both indicators drop to neutral in May.

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Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.

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Both ratios still bullish.

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Given various assumed compound rates of return, how long will it take for the investor who remained in stocks to catch the investor who shifted to T-bills at the top?

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Volatility in the S&P was unusually high in 2002. And now in early 2003, it appears the S&P 500 is continuing to be extremely volatile.

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Both ratios reconfirming a buy signal.

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Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from January client meetings in Texas.

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NASDAQ ratio declines on increased volume. A new style this month gives the NYSE ratio more timely signals.

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A closer look at the relationship between Consumer Confidence and the NASDAQ over the last three years.

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Last month, we had a request for technical readings on the major market indices. Being a long time card carrying member of the Market Technicians Association, I decided I should oblige.

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YTD instances of High Volatility (50%) is still well above the 2000-2001 levels. It is, in fact, the highest volatility reading since 1938, and the fifth highest since 1900.

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October's reading the most volatile in the S&P 500 since 1938 and fifth highest over the entire history of this work.

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S&P 500 High Volatility reading of 73% for the month is in line above the all time annual highs recorded in 1931-1933.

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Volatility is still running at a pace significantly less than in 2000 and 2001, but the recent acceleration is troubling.

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NASDAQ record high short selling. NYSE moving to new highs.

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