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NOPE Index

May 07 2020

The NOPE Index Says “Nope!”

  • May 7, 2020

The most valuable gauge we construct from the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Non-Manufacturing reports sunk into bear territory with the April update, signifying a serious margin squeeze has hit the service sector.

Jan 08 2020

Waiting For The Stimulus To Trickle Down...

  • Jan 8, 2020

Last year the Federal Reserve dumped historic stimulus onto a full-employment economy and an already richly-valued stock market. The stock market obviously loved it.

Oct 05 2019

Last Bastion Breaking Down?

  • Oct 5, 2019

We’ve been expecting weakness in the manufacturing sector to spread to the service economy, but were not prepared for the nearly four-point drop in the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite. We don’t want to overplay a single monthly reading from an historically volatile report, but the Non-Manufacturing Price Index spiked despite the drop in New Orders.

Sep 07 2019

ISM Shows This Is A Different Kind Of Cycle

  • Sep 7, 2019

The manufacturing economy has thrown us a deflationary curve in 2019: The Price Index broke down in advance of New Orders, a reversal of the textbook recession/recovery sequence between these two measures.

Aug 07 2019

Odds & Ends

  • Aug 7, 2019

Here are some brief follow-up notes on topics covered in recent months’ Green Books.

Jun 14 2019

Deflation And Deception

  • Jun 14, 2019

We think the current economic cycle is more likely to end in a deflationary bust than with a bout of late-cycle “overheating,” and analysts and investors should recognize that such a cycle ending could be especially difficult to detect.


Dec 07 2018

Economic Stocking Stuffers

  • Dec 7, 2018

While the monetary and liquidity backdrop has deteriorated all year, the shorter-term economic evidence has remained mixed.

Aug 31 2018

Watching Prices And New Orders

  • Aug 31, 2018

Trying to monitor the dozen or so regional purchasing-managers’ surveys released prior to the monthly national report  invites a perpetual case of whiplash...

Aug 07 2018

Service Sector Slowdown?

  • Aug 7, 2018

While service industries have minimal direct exposure to trade disputes, they will begin to suffer from knock-on effects if the tensions continue to escalate.

Jul 07 2018

A New ISM “Composite”

  • Jul 7, 2018

Over the past year, we’ve highlighted three mechanical market models based solely on components of the ISM monthly manufacturing report (Charts 1-3).

May 05 2018

Earnings Soar While Liquidity Circles The Drain

  • May 5, 2018

Question: How can you be cautious on the stock market with recent earnings results so spectacular?

Apr 06 2018

A Fleeting Glimpse Of Goldilocks?

  • Apr 6, 2018

The first several years of this recovery badly underperformed forecasts, with partial blame going to a pair of deflationary shocks (the European debt crisis and oil price collapse).

Jan 06 2018

Pressure Points?

  • Jan 6, 2018

The first few trading days of the new year have been a seamless extension of 2017—a low-volatility, “measured” market melt-up.

Dec 07 2017

The ISM: Good News Is Still Good News

  • Dec 7, 2017

November’s report might have been lifted verbatim from the Goldilocks playbook, with the reading very strong but below the 60 level that we’ve statistically shown to be a threshold where “good news becomes bad news” for the stock market.

Sep 08 2017

Commodities: How Strong Is Too Strong?

  • Sep 8, 2017

While the bond market doesn’t believe it, the past couple of months leave no doubt that the U.S. industrial economy has recovered from the energy-related slump of 2015-2016.

Jun 07 2017

Need More Reasons To Buy?

  • Jun 7, 2017

When it rains, it pours. As if the market’s broad new highs of early June aren’t enough, here’s a pair of sub-models from the MTI’s Economic category that are set to turn bullish.

Jun 07 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Jun 7, 2016

Commentators now label this cyclical advance the “seven-year bull market,” but that won’t be semantically true until the S&P 500 closes above its May 2015 peak of 2130.82.