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Normalized EPS

Nov 07 2017

Small Cap Valuation Check

  • Nov 7, 2017

We don’t have a strong capitalization-bet recommendation, other than to remind readers that Small Caps have been especially responsive to the favorable seasonal window that began November 1st (and which extends through April 30th).

Nov 07 2017

Revisiting The Y2K Highs

  • Nov 7, 2017

Bobby Knight thought coaching would be perfect “if it weren’t for those damned games.”

Sep 08 2017

Could It Be A “Two-Fer?”

  • Sep 8, 2017

The milestones achieved by the current cyclical bull market have been so numerous that we hope you’ll forgive us for missing one back in May.

Jun 07 2017

Stocks Versus Bonds: A Lonnngggg-Term View

  • Jun 7, 2017

On a 50-year view, stocks do indeed look cheap relative to bonds. But the inclusion of 90 earlier years of data muddies the message.

Nov 05 2016

Has The Fed Already Hit Stocks?

  • Nov 5, 2016

One never appreciates what he or she has until it’s gone. In our case, during the many years it was freely available, we failed to appreciate the zero interest rate. Now that it’s gone, we already feel pressured to join a game where we (and very few others) have any edge: Fed-watching. Our real edge is that we recognize this.

Sep 08 2016

A Semi-Annual Checkup!

  • Sep 8, 2016

Call off the mortician, and bring on the pediatrician for the bull market’s 7 1/2-year checkup this month.

Sep 08 2016

Sizing Up Small Caps

  • Sep 8, 2016

While the most inflated domestic-valuation readings are found in the Large Cap realm, the market rebound has driven the median 12-month trailing P/E in our Small Cap universe to 22.5x (Chart 1)—less than a point away from the June 2015 all-time high of 23.3x.

Feb 05 2016

Draghi: Losing The Battle And The War

  • Feb 5, 2016

If the current global bear market manages to shake investors’ blind faith in central bankers, this decline might actually accomplish something in the long term. But breaking that faith will take awhile.

Jan 08 2016

Foreign Stocks: The Value Trap Persists

  • Jan 8, 2016

Foreign stocks’ perpetual underperformance has opened up a valuation gap that should look extremely appealing to anyone with a horizon of more than two years. But proceed with caution.

Aug 07 2013

A Comprehensive Look At The Emerging Markets: Diagnosis And Prognosis

  • Aug 7, 2013

We examine Emerging Markets from both the top-down and bottom-up perspectives as we try to identify where to move and what to expect. We check in on two successful EM thematic group ideas as well.

Jan 07 2013

A Peak At The Rear-View Mirror!

  • Jan 7, 2013

We’ve lately made it a January tradition to publish a “Rear View Mirror” forecast for S&P 500 returns out to the end of this decade.

Mar 04 2011

Valuations: The Good And The Bad

  • Mar 4, 2011

S&P Normalized valuations are already in the zone that have defined many important bull market tops.

Feb 04 2011

Global Valuations: Reverting To The Trough

  • Feb 4, 2011

From our perspective as disciples of Normalized EPS, the entire bull market to date has come from P/E expansion. However, that stands to change as global Normalized EPS are again on the rise.

 

Jan 05 2011

2011 In 2019?

  • Jan 5, 2011

Year-ahead stock market forecasts are now in hot demand, but of course are notoriously off the mark most years. Very long term forecasts (say, out to the end of the decade) are in virtually no demand, but are considerably easier to get close to the mark for those armed with the right tools. 

 

Aug 03 2010

Going (More) Global

  • Aug 3, 2010

MSCI Index very undervalued, as the recovery off the March 2009 lows has left valuations still near prior bear market lows. Relative to foreign markets, the U.S. looks expensive. This is why we continue to maintain a healthy exposure to foreign stocks…especially emerging markets.

 

 

Jan 04 2010

U.S. Stocks: What If The New Decade Is “Normal”?

  • Jan 4, 2010

While most are content to make annual predictions at this time, leave it to Doug Ramsey to bite off an even bigger piece…predicting the next DECADE.

Nov 04 2009

Valuation Constraints?

  • Nov 4, 2009

There is a potential valuation ceiling confronting U.S. stocks. 2002 S&P valuation lows may be the point that this cyclical bull market tops out.

Sep 04 2009

Estimating The Upside

  • Sep 4, 2009

Given the very long-term ebb and flow of market valuations, it is hard to believe that—with old valuation norms finally and decisively violated to the downside—the market will spring back to anything like the valuations seen in the middle of this decade.

Feb 04 2009

The U.S. Is Leading The Foreign Markets, But For How Long?

  • Feb 4, 2009

· The U.S. is leading the foreign markets, but for how long?

 

Sep 03 2008

Materials: From First To Worst

  • Sep 3, 2008

Materials sector has fallen fast and hard in our GS Score rankings and is now the worst rated. Still see further downside based on valuations and technical factors. No, we do not think the underlying commodities can outperform while the stocks fall.

 

Jul 04 2008

The Major Trend Index...Gone Global

  • Jul 4, 2008

Comparing and contrasting our traditional Major Trend Index and the Global Major Trend Index. Both are now Neutral, but the Global version is showing better valuations and worse technical scores.

 

Jun 05 2007

Interest Rates And Stock Valuations: A Broken Linkage?

  • Jun 5, 2007

A look at the relationship between bond and stock yields as justification for today’s expectations of a continued bull market and for the current LBO craze. No evidence that Fed-type valuation models help forecast future market returns.

Dec 04 2002

Valuations…..Most Bear Markets End Around Median P/E Levels

  • Dec 4, 2002

Earnings are rebounding strongly. S&P operating earnings estimates are up 21% from 2001 to 2002, and up 23% from 2002 and 2003. Severe cost cutting may not be fully factored into analyst estimates. Look for upside earning surprise.