Research.LeutholdGroup

BACK TO THE MEDIANS (1957 To Date): S&P 500 13% Downside

The S&P 500 gained 4.3% (price only) in February. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented below, the S&P 500 has 13% downside to its historical average. The S&P Industrials (which excludes Utilities and Financials) now has 26% downside to reach mean valuation.  

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Consumer Discretionary sector weightings sank among all three market tiers, as this segment led the market lower in January. Health Care and Utilities sector weightings increased, as both outperformed for the month.

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At 15.8x Normalized EPS, the non-U.S. developed world (measured by the MSCI World Ex USA Index) still hasn’t managed to recover to its old lows of 18x seen in both 1992 and 2002.

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