Research.LeutholdGroup

The six-month stretch beginning in May generally coincides with a narrow stock market in which non-cyclical and low volatility stocks tend to be the winners. Hence, don’t “sell” in May, but rather, tilt away from beta and away from “breadth.” These seasonal switching strategies have 70% batting averages.

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While 2016 is shaping up to be one of the most difficult years ever (on a relative basis) for active equity managers, one cannot blame the usual culprit of “narrow” market participation.

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Those inclined to sell in May should sell Small Caps. If you don’t have Small Caps, sell Cyclicals, at least for the next six months.

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