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SELL Signal

Aug 07 2019

Odds & Ends

  • Aug 7, 2019

Here are some brief follow-up notes on topics covered in recent months’ Green Books.

Jul 05 2019

Correlations Are Worthless, Except This One

  • Jul 5, 2019

We’ve never understood investment quants’ desire to project correlations among assets. Such correlations are inherently unstable.

Jul 05 2019

Breadth: Is It Different This Time?

  • Jul 5, 2019

The granddaddy of all technical indicators—the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line—continues to make new highs alongside the S&P 500, suggesting the market should move to even higher (but perhaps narrower) highs well into the fall. As noted a month ago, we increasingly suspect that granddaddy may be telling a lie.

Oct 07 2015

A Whimpering Sell Signal...

  • Oct 7, 2015

It’s been more than two years since NYSE Margin Debt broke out above its 2007 high, and we remember the rash of bearish commentary that accompanied that milestone. We later showed the Margin Debt increase was almost perfectly proportional to the gain in the stock market itself, and not a reason to turn bearish in and of itself. But our tune has changed.