It depends on who you ask. Non-equity investors might think the Trump trades are playing out just like in 2016. Over the last few months, FX traders and bond investors could have followed the 2016 script and made out like bandits (Charts 1 & 2). However, at this juncture, it might be time to at least take some chips off the table—if the 2016 analog stays intact, both the U.S. dollar and interest rates are poised to change course over the next few months. Near-term knee-jerk reactions aside (stronger dollar, lower yields), the newly announced tariffs will likely impact growth more than anything else, which would make it hard to sustain a stronger dollar and higher rates.