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Special Reports

Aug 01 1987

Time to Sell Stocks Our Diffusion Index Says

  • Aug 1, 1987

The tool has functioned as a good lead indicator of changes in inflation momentum. When the reading is moving up it is an inflation acceleration alert and a move above 70% is usually cause for a general alarm. On the other hand, readings below 50% are a comfort zone.

May 15 2019

May Green Book Summary

  • May 15, 2019

In 1962, President Kennedy clashed with steel companies over a 3.5% price hike and, in the midst of that, the S&P 500 declined 24% over the span of just a few months. In hindsight, that conflict about steel prices looks like BB gun material compared to the bazookas Trump and trade adviser Robert Lighthizer have fired in the last year. Could the present-day trade war with China “trigger” a decline like that (allegedly) of the Kennedy Slide?

Apr 12 2019

April Green Book Summary

  • Apr 12, 2019

In the first three months of 2019, the S&P 500 surged 13%, its best quarterly performance in nearly ten years. This is strikingly similar to the rally of 1999—which may have been the most speculative in U.S. history. 

Mar 13 2019

March Green Book Summary

  • Mar 13, 2019

Based on standard technical retracements, the best-case S&P 500 bounce “should” have been exhausted in the range of 2,700-2,750. Less than three months since a 19.8% close-to-close decline, the market has rallied to within reach of a new high, a move which would commemorate the bull market’s 10th anniversary.

Feb 13 2019

February Green Book Summary

  • Feb 13, 2019

The Research Summary is now available for download on our website for February 2019. The Research Summary provides a synopsis of The Leuthold Group's monthly market outlook.

Jan 25 2019

Leuthold Quick Takes: Cyclical Bear Or Recovery Refresh?

  • Jan 25, 2019

The fourth quarter selloff and subsequent rebound, as seen by Doug Ramsey (Chief Investment Officer) and Jim Paulsen (Chief Investment Strategist).

Jan 25 2019

Leuthold Quick Takes: Cyclical Bear Or Recovery Refresh?

  • Jan 25, 2019

The fourth quarter selloff and subsequent rebound, as seen by Doug Ramsey (Chief Investment Officer) and Jim Paulsen (Chief Investment Strategist).

Jan 11 2019

January Green Book Summary

  • Jan 11, 2019

At some point in his career, famed stock trader Jesse Livermore ceased using the terms bull and bear, opting instead to describe trends in terms of “lines of least resistance.” He felt the change in terminology enabled a more flexible, unbiased mindset.

Jan 10 2019

Ancient Forecasting Diagram Predicts Grim 2019

  • Jan 10, 2019

Published 60 years ago in a newspaper gossip column, this diagram forecasted a major market high in 1972 and a panic low in 1982.

Dec 28 2018

3% Yields Proved To Be High Enough

  • Dec 28, 2018

In September the popular claim was that “interest rates were rising for the right reasons,” and still too low to threaten stocks or U.S. economic expansion.

Dec 20 2018

Fake-Out Breakout?

  • Dec 20, 2018

Throughout the recovery from the market’s early-2018 correction, we suggested any new high would be a good candidate for a “fake-out breakout” along the lines of those near the bull market tops of 1990, 2000, and 2007.

Dec 18 2018

December Green Book Summary

  • Dec 18, 2018

The bears gorged themselves in the two weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and the S&P 500 closed at a correction low the day afterward. “Christmas” arrived immediately thereafter, with a six-day gain of 6%. But that was followed by a two-day collapse on December 4th and 6th, which undercut the post-Thanksgiving low on an intraday basis.

Nov 15 2018

Asset Allocation: As Bad As It Gets

  • Nov 15, 2018

Asset Allocation in 2018 is about as bad as it gets. No major asset class has done well.

Nov 14 2018

November 2018 Green Book Summary

  • Nov 14, 2018

We wrote in October’s Green Book that “many once reliable seasonal market patterns have been out of sync in recent years.” The market gods punished us for having the audacity to write such a thing (and during October, of all months!), taking the S&P 500 down to within 0.1% of “correction territory” at the October 29th low. But the punishment outside the U.S. commenced long beforehand, and last month’s losses drove several foreign market measures into bear territory. We expect U.S. blue chips to follow.

Nov 12 2018

Rates Hurting Households

  • Nov 12, 2018

Doubling of yields since 2016 has slammed households. Percentage increase in rates is more important than the absolute level.

Oct 15 2018

Factors And Sectors: A Curious Entanglement

  • Oct 15, 2018

Portfolio managers who tilt toward Value or Growth stocks have long known that each style carries with it an inherent bias toward some sectors and away from others. Our recent piece, Value Style’s 100-Year Flood, highlighted the significant role that sector weights (overweight Financials and Energy, underweight Technology) played in Value’s decade-long stretch of underperformance.

Sep 19 2018

Real Rates and the Federal Deficit

  • Sep 19, 2018

The real short-term interest rate shows how inappropriately-loose monetary policy has remained in the face of a steady economic expansion.

May 23 2018

Value Style’s 100-Year Flood

  • May 23, 2018

Value is the philosophical cornerstone of many legendary portfolio managers and is widely recognized as one of the most robust quantitative investment factors. Yet, despite its compelling conceptual merits and long-term record of superior returns, recent years’ underperformance of Value has lasted long enough to weigh on even 10-year performance records. 

Jan 25 2018

A Tactical Approach To Successful Factor Investing

  • Jan 25, 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

Executive Summary / Factor Investing-An Initial Look / Factor Investing And The Importance Of Market Cycles / The Intelligent Use Of Smart Beta / A Six-Factor Study including Value, Momentum, Quality, Stability, Yield, and Size / Next Steps

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Apr 12 2017

EM Closed-End Fund Discount/Premium: No Longer A Sentiment Factor

  • Apr 12, 2017

Closed-end funds (CEFs) rarely trade at net asset value (NAV). They either trade at a premium or a discount to share price. When demand for underlying assets is high, the price of a CEF will move above its NAV, trading at a premium. On the contrary, when investors are pessimistic about the underlying assets of a CEF, the price is driven below NAV, trading at a discount. Many studies have looked at CEF discounts and premiums as a means to gauge investor sentiment toward the assets they represent.