Despite our reservations about the durability of the expansion, we have to respect what it has overcome: interest-rate hikes of 425 bps; a nearly 2-year runoff in the Fed’s balance sheet (QT); and a 9-month bear market that began before the expansion reached its 2-year milestone. Even consumer “expectations,” which track the market higher in the early phase of a bull market, never rebounded and are lower now than at the fall-2022 market low.