We recently finished a study featuring 30 versions a favorite forecasting “toy”—the Treasury yield curve. In this expanded report we unearthed value in several variants we didn’t test in the original 2023 study. In particular, higher forecast correlations were produced when using yields on 2-yr. and 3-yr. Treasury notes in lieu of the 10-yr. Treasury yield.
May
07
2025
Enjoying Our “Toys” While We Can
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