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10-Month Moving Crossover Strategy

May 07 2021

Time For “Timing?”

  • May 7, 2021

Valuations aren’t known as effective timing tools, but they can certainly help one decide when an attempt at timing may be appropriate. And if that time isn’t now, then when?

Mar 06 2020

A Signal Bulls Should Love...

  • Mar 6, 2020

There’s no question that it’s been a rough couple of years for stock market technicians. We noted earlier that if February 19th stands as the final high of the bull market, it would be only the third time in the last 100 years that the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line failed to provide at least a few months’ advance notice of the oncoming bear.

Oct 05 2019

The Trend Is Your “Fiend!”

  • Oct 5, 2019

Over the last year of market swings, we’ve tracked the horrific performance of what had previously been a solid long-term system for timing the S&P 500, the 10-month moving average crossover system. In the last 12 months, this generally low-risk approach has generated a total return loss of 13.74%.

Aug 07 2019

Altitudes And Attitudes

  • Aug 7, 2019

Trend followers who use the ten-month moving average discipline finally had a positive month in July. But after the early-August decline, they are still holding an S&P 500 loss of 60 points from their latest trade initiated at the end of June.

Jul 05 2019

Does BUY Now Mean SELL?

  • Jul 5, 2019

Many technicians consider the 10-month moving-average crossover technique as the gold standard among long-term timing practices. The method was successfully applied to several asset classes in the SSRN’s most-downloaded paper of all time, “A Quantitative Approach To Asset Allocation” by Meb Faber.

Jun 07 2019

Trend: The New Contrary Indicator?

  • Jun 7, 2019

Last month’s market action negated the month-old VLT BUY signals for the MSCI EAFE and Emerging Market indexes.

Mar 07 2019

Time To Jump Back In?

  • Mar 7, 2019

A few pundits have suggested that Jack Bogle’s death in January might prove to be the symbolic capstone to a cycle in which passive investing has completely dominated the full-fee, active money-manager ranks.

Feb 07 2019

Trend-Following Travails

  • Feb 7, 2019

To recap our allocation moves over the last year: We established an initial equity hedge in tactical accounts very close to the January 2018 highs.