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Bridesmaid

Jan 08 2019

Bridesmaid Strategy - Valuations

  • Jan 8, 2019

Momentum strategies aren’t for everyone. Still, contrarians should recognize that buying the prior year’s worst performing sector for a one-year hold has been an underperforming proposition over the long term.

Jan 08 2019

Bridesmaid Strategy - Sectors

  • Jan 8, 2019

Our analysis of the Bridesmaid effect originated in 2006, but was based on S&P 500 sectors rather than asset classes.

Jan 08 2019

Bridesmaid Strategy - Asset Classes

  • Jan 8, 2019

The best we can say about last year’s Bridesmaid asset—the S&P 500—is that it did not underperform “the S&P 500.”

Jan 08 2019

Read This Before Taking The “Plunge”

  • Jan 8, 2019

After a bad market year like 2018, there’s a natural instinct for allocators to skew portfolios toward assets with poor recent performance. History suggests, though, that one shouldn’t make a habit of buying an asset on the basis of price weakness alone.

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: Low P/E Sector: Annual Results

  • Jan 6, 2018

Table 5 shows annual performance results for the Cheapest Sector strategy under all four rebalancing frequencies, along with the lowest P/E sector for the annual version of the strategy.

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: A Value Alternative

  • Jan 6, 2018

For those not psychologically suited to a momentum approach, we’ve developed a contrarian sector allocation strategy that’s delivered even better long-term performance than the Bridesmaid approach.

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: Sector Track Record

  • Jan 6, 2018

Table 3 shows annual performance results for the Bridesmaid sector strategy under all four rebalancing frequencies, along with the sector selection for the annual version of the strategy.

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: For Equity Managers

  • Jan 6, 2018

Our analysis of the Bridesmaid effect originated more than a decade ago, with an initial focus on equity sectors rather than asset classes.

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: Picking The Year’s Best Asset

  • Jan 6, 2018

Here’s another way to look at the persistence of momentum across asset classes for the last 45 years.

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: Risk & Return

  • Jan 6, 2018

The concept of risk is hardly at the forefront of the investor psyche after the second-least volatile year in stock market history.

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: Track Record

  • Jan 6, 2018

Last year’s Bridesmaid gain of +21.8% matched the benchmark (obviously, since it was entirely invested in the benchmark).

Jan 07 2017

Low P/E Sector: Annual Results

  • Jan 7, 2017

Table 6 summarizes annual sector selection and accompanying performance for the “Cheapest Sector” strategy back to 1991.

Jan 07 2017

Bridesmaid Sector Track Record

  • Jan 7, 2017

Table 4 shows the annual sector selection and accompanying performance results for the Bridesmaid approach dating back to 1991.

Jan 07 2017

Bridesmaid Strategy For Equity Managers

  • Jan 7, 2017

Our analysis on the Bridesmaid effect originated back in 2006, but was initially based on equity sectors rather than asset classes.

Jan 07 2017

Bridesmaid Strategy: Return Vs. Volatility

  • Jan 7, 2017

While the consideration of risk seems almost a quaint notion as the bull market nears its eighth birthday, it’s nonetheless worth noting the Bridesmaid allocation strategy has generated a favorable return/volatility trade-off in relation to: (1) the seven candidate asset classes; and, (2) the strategy of owning an asset class with a prior-year total return rank other than #2.

Jan 07 2017

Bridesmaid Track Record

  • Jan 7, 2017

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bonds—last year’s Bridesmaid holding—eked out a 1% gain in 2016, a disappointing result but one that preserved a streak of positive annual returns dating back to 2001 (Table 2).

Jan 07 2017

Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?

  • Jan 7, 2017

The turn of the calendar seems to bring out the inner contrarian in some investors—those who will peruse last year’s list of lagging asset classes looking for rebound candidates.

Jan 08 2016

Bridesmaid Asset Strategy

  • Jan 8, 2016

Liquidity “consuming” strategies like price momentum are generally considered to be more volatile than liquidity “providing” approaches like value investing.

Jan 08 2016

Bridesmaid Sector Strategy

  • Jan 8, 2016

Our original research on price momentum dates back to the late 1960s, and was based not on asset classes but on equity sectors and industry groups. We stumbled upon the Bridesmaid effect, in fact, while testing a handful of simple strategies about a decade ago.

Jan 08 2015

Asset Allocation & Sector Strategy: Follow The Trend, Or Fade It?

  • Jan 8, 2015

We are nothing if not contrarians, but have also highlighted the hazards of “knee-jerk” contrarianism—in which investors are instinctively drawn to the asset, sector, or stock that is down the most in price in the recent past.

Jan 08 2014

Buy The Bridesmaid, Not The One Looking To Rebound

  • Jan 8, 2014

The investment leadership of a given year has historically had better-than-even odds of outperforming in the following year at both the asset class and equity sector levels.

Oct 08 2013

Playing The Bounce - With A Twist

  • Oct 8, 2013

The historical batting average of this strategy has been decent, with gains in 9 of 18 years along with “excess” returns over the S&P 500 in 10 of 18 years. The best Bounce seasons have occurred when the market was either down for the year through September, or up only modestly.

Jan 07 2013

Bridesmaid Revisited: Do You Buy Strength Or Weakness?

  • Jan 7, 2013

Our “second best really is best” analysis comes up with an asset class we like and a sector we hate, plus trying it monthly doesn’t work out quite the way we thought it would.

 

Jan 05 2012

Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?

  • Jan 5, 2012

The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.

Jan 05 2011

Dreams, Nightmares & Bridesmaids: Should You Hold On To Last Year’s Winners?

  • Jan 5, 2011

Of Special Interest asks “Should You Hold On To Last Year’s Winners?” by examining the Dreams, Nightmares and Bridesmaid strategies. This year, our analysis expands beyond equity groups to the sector and asset class levels.

 

Jan 05 2008

A Look In The Rearview Mirror

  • Jan 5, 2008

2007’s “Good, Bad, and Ugly” of The Leuthold Group research; Leuthold Group Selection (GS) Scores performance review; Weighted index vs. Un-Weighted index performance; and 2007’s “Dreams & Nightmares” portfolios.

Jan 03 2007

2006 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been

  • Jan 3, 2007

A look back at the performance one would have achieved by investing in the year’s best groups and the pain felt from investing in the worst performing groups in 2006. We also examine the strategy of buying a prior year’s winners and losers in anticipation of better performance the following year.