Research.LeutholdGroup

Even casual market observers have begun to marvel at the NASDAQ’s ability to defy the rest of the stock market, and the “U.S. Exceptionalism Index” continues to go parabolic.

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We have a hard time accepting that the excesses associated with an eleven-year bull market and expansion can be fully expunged in 27 trading days, no matter how ugly those days were… keep some powder dry!

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The bull case for a “brief” pandemic-related recession and powerful recovery is the same as the bull case from two months ago for “no recession or bear market” at all: stimulus (as if that’s exactly what the U.S. economy has lacked for the last 11 years).

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We didn’t see the coronavirus coming and, like millions or perhaps billions of others, underestimated its likely economic impact when it began to spread. But stock market risks were high well before the virus hit.

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With the wavering state of consumer and business confidence, even a modest stock market correction of 8-10% might deliver the fatal blow to confidence—and therefore to the U.S. economic expansion.

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The yield curve’s ten-month moving average inverted in September, hence the yield curve inversion can no longer be dismissed as transitory; the Boom/Bust Indicator remains below its descending 10-month moving average, confirming economic weakness predicted by the yield curve; and, the “Present Situation” component of September’s Consumer Confidence survey slipped below its 10-month moving average for the third time in 2019.

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Trend followers who use the ten-month moving average discipline finally had a positive month in July. But after the early-August decline, they are still holding an S&P 500 loss of 60 points from their latest trade initiated at the end of June.

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The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.

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U.S. stock funds have seen heavy outflows despite the market’s YTD gains of 15-20%, once again reviving the tired characterization of this bull market as the “most hated in history.”

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Several consumer confidence gauges plunged in the wake of the Q4 market decline (as expected), and then rebounded in a lagged response to the stock market recovery (again, as expected). But March saw the largest one-month drop in consumers’ assessment of their “Present Situation” since 2008.

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The “Expectations” component of the Consumer Confidence survey has been wobbly in the last few months, but the latest report, released on Tuesday, showed the first meaningful hit to consumers’ “Present Situation” since the stock market first began to struggle 14 months ago (Chart 1).

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Christmas Eve came not with snowfall but a market freefall which was the worst-ever recorded for that date.

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Stock market valuations certainly show no lack of investor confidence: each of our “Big Six” valuation measures now resides in either its ninth or tenth historical decile.

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The less-well-known Stock Market Confidence survey from the Conference Board has poked into “excessively optimistic” territory for the first time since 2003

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The S&P 500 closed the first week of January at a new cycle high, up 9.2% from the pre-election low made on November 4th.

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The above caption—and Jimmy Buffett song title—comes from the “View From The North Country” section in the first-ever Green Book published in November 1981. Not much has changed in 35 years.

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While this 7 1/2-year bull market has failed to give rise to anything resembling the equity culture of the late 1990s, we think it’s a stretch to claim—as dozens of commentators over the past five years have—that this bull is “the most hated” in history.

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Consumer Confidence shot to new cycle highs in March, closing within 6-7 points of the peak made shortly before the Great Recession.

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We’re still bullish, but nonetheless feel a duty to take issue with some of the popular story-lines that have attended the past two years’ rising prices.

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We’ve written before about retail investors’ tendency to “conflate” stock market action with movements in the underlying economy. Misunderstanding this interrelationship generally causes the public to liquidate stocks when the economy is weak, only to ultimately buy them back when the economic recovery is obvious to all.

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The Risk Aversion Index edged up during November. It is still on a “higher risk” signal. We will stay defensive and be patient. Higher quality assets within the fixed income space are favored.

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Consumer confidence levels have sunk to five year lows. Could this be a bullish omen for the markets?

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Optimists have continuously cited low unemployment and the ever resilient U.S. consumer as two “pillars of strength” that will help keep the economy afloat. It has become considerably more difficult to make this case in recent months, as jobs and spending data have weakened to levels associated with recessions.

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Our view that the consumer is due for a pullback has been bolstered in recent months, as Consumer Discretionary groups have continued to slip in our Group Selection (GS) Score rankings.

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“Of Special Interest” section examines the likely demise of consumer spending power. Taking a lead from the GS Scores and other economic data, we believe that a significant underweight in areas that are particularly sensitive to consumer spending is a prudent strategy for now.

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Consumer spending may have finally peaked in this cycle, but a consumer collapse is far from imminent. Consumers can be expected to remain supportive of economic growth.

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An in depth discussion of market sentiment...At present, it is a real mixed bag, there is no clear cut consensus.

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American consumer spending is still in an uptrend, helping to drive economic growth, although to a lesser extent. In the meantime, CapEx spending has been accelerating, which should serve to pick up any economic slack.

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Does consumer confidence offers any insight into future spending patterns? Also, the case for shorting T-Bonds.

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Consumer confidence now dismal. Historical analysis however indicates that good buying opportunities are typically found during periods of extreme pessimism. Currently view Conference Board measure as a stock market positive!

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A closer look at the relationship between Consumer Confidence and the NASDAQ over the last three years.

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Important pillars of economic bridge until Capex kicks in and business confidence improves. Interest only mortgages-the ticking time bomb debt. U.S. Consumer debt OK compared with other countries but, what happens when interest rates rise?

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In August, the bloodletting finally slowed:  Majority of indices actually managed to eke out small gains.

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The public certainly is not afraid of Mr Greenspan…..Strong public confidence now a key stock market support factor.

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Market volatility was the likely culprit for equity fund disenchantment in May, as net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds for the month were less than half of April’s record breaking $26.1 billion. Main Street Confidence: The critical market factor…..what are some potential confidence destroyers?

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What might threaten Main Street equity confidence???

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The driving force behind today’s stock market is the public. Never before had they had such clout.

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After noting last month’s declines in public confidence measures we wrote that, in order to sustain a rising stock market, these measures needed to improve in the next month. All of the confidence measures did improve.

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Numerous measures experienced sharp drops corresponding closely to the stock market sell off. Without a bounce in the next two months, the outlook for the economy and the stock market may look quite bleak.

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Steve’s personal judgements and opinions incorporating observations, experience and gut feelings, going beyond the quantitative aspects of the Major Trend Index disciplines.

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