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Cyclical Bull Market

Jun 05 2020

“Not Quite” Super

  • Jun 5, 2020

The average “super-overbought” MBI reading occurred 54 days after a market low; June 4th marks the 51st trading day since the March 23rd low. Thus, any signal in the days ahead would arrive essentially “on time,” but the slippage (the S&P 500 gain already realized) would be enormous at around 40%!

Jun 05 2020

A Stock Market Brain Teaser

  • Jun 5, 2020

The bull and bear labels can be dangerous to stock market operators, so much so that famed speculator Jesse Livermore is said to have abandoned them in favor of softer terminology: “Lines of least resistance.” We aren’t about to ditch the old labels, or even our collection of bull and bear bookends.

Apr 05 2019

The Cyclical Bull In Perspective

  • Apr 5, 2019

This ten-year boom—one that’s taken the S&P 500 to the second-highest valuations in history—has merely lifted the index to the top end of a channel that’s contained the S&P 500’s 6% annualized gain over the last nine decades.

Oct 12 2018

Four Paw Prints That Will Confirm Rumored Sightings Of The Bear

  • Oct 12, 2018

We think the odds are better than even that the September 20th S&P 500 high will stand as the stock market high for 2018, and perhaps also as the high for a historic event begun back in 2009. We’re well-prepared for that possibility, with the Leuthold Core now positioned today with net equity exposure of just 37%.


Mar 07 2018

Happy 9th Birthday To An “Off-The-Charts” Bull!

  • Mar 7, 2018

Last fall’s market rally drove the DJIA off (literally) our 1900-Present Bull Market chart. Within a year, this bull jumped two spots to #3 in the all-time rankings dating back to 1900.

Mar 07 2018

The Correction That Scared No One

  • Mar 7, 2018

The setback from the January 26th market peak represents the ninth correction of 7% or more since 2009, the most ever recorded during a single cyclical bull market.

Feb 07 2018

Implications Of Extreme Momentum

  • Feb 7, 2018

Historically, leadership and breadth accompanying an upside market move is far more predictive than the pure momentum of the move. But when intermediate-term momentum is not just strong but exceptional (as it was until just recently), there has usually been even more upside to follow.

Nov 07 2017

Enjoying It While It Lasts

  • Nov 7, 2017

We don’t think the current stock market upleg is over.

Oct 06 2017

Year Of The G.O.A.T. ?

  • Oct 6, 2017

Entering 2017, we expected a stock market “melt-up” to the 2,550-2,600 level on the S&P 500—a move we thought might run into trouble by late summer.

Sep 08 2017

Could It Be A “Two-Fer?”

  • Sep 8, 2017

The milestones achieved by the current cyclical bull market have been so numerous that we hope you’ll forgive us for missing one back in May.

Jun 07 2017

A “Measured” Melt-Up

  • Jun 7, 2017

The stock market “melt up” scenario is underway but has proven less broad than we expected. Just as in the late-1990s, Technology and NASDAQ are the main subjects of investor adulation.

Mar 07 2017

A Subdued 8th Birthday Celebration

  • Mar 7, 2017

The hoopla falls short of that which surrounded birthdays #3-#7; based on the flood of assets into passive stock funds, it appears complacency has set in. Current bull close to becoming longest in history.

Dec 07 2016

Acting Like A “New” Bull Market?

  • Dec 7, 2016

With DJIA and S&P 500 losses in the 2015-16 decline limited to less than –15%, there’s no way we’d argue the episode represented a completed cyclical bear market (and we said so at the time).

Aug 05 2016

Too Many New Highs To Make A High?

  • Aug 5, 2016

The number of NYSE 52-Week Highs typically peaks during the bull market’s strongest leg, before contracting into the final top. Last month, Net New Highs made a three-year high—implying more upside.

Mar 08 2016

Ready For Year Eight?

  • Mar 8, 2016

Assuming—only for the sake of argument—the bull remains intact, its seventh anniversary will mark a rare case in which the market was lower than at its anniversary a year earlier.

Jul 08 2014

Disciplines Remain Bullish, But...

  • Jul 8, 2014

Current conditions remain cyclically bullish for equities, however, the mathematics don’t support the  “secular” bull market thesis, or those betting that stocks can be propped up by the economic expansion.

Jul 09 2013

Major Trend Moves To Neutral, But Not All Hope For The Bulls Is Lost

  • Jul 9, 2013

Deteriorating Technicals drove the move to Neutral, but a new positive reading in the Attitudinal category gives some hope to the bulls.

Jul 08 2013

Rising Stocks And Rising Rates: It’s Not Uncommon

  • Jul 8, 2013

Today may feel different, but it isn’t. The past 13 months’ trading action in the U.S. is the second example of this phenomenon in the current (2009-to-date) cyclical bull market. We focus on 11 previous episodes for perspective. Plus we clarify recent thoughts on interest rates and stock market valuations.

Jun 07 2013

The Rolling Stock Market Top Of 2013 (… And 2011, 2010, And 2009)

  • Jun 7, 2013

We’ve frequently mentioned the two-faced nature of thematic leadership during the current bull market. Filtering out the minor swings, Phase One lasted from March 2009 through February 2011 and was dominated by low quality, high beta and cyclical stocks.

Jun 07 2013

Stocks And The Economy

  • Jun 7, 2013

We’ve written before about retail investors’ tendency to “conflate” stock market action with movements in the underlying economy. Misunderstanding this interrelationship generally causes the public to liquidate stocks when the economy is weak, only to ultimately buy them back when the economic recovery is obvious to all.

Sep 06 1984

New Bull? Second Leg?.....Or Bear Market Rally?

  • Sep 6, 1984

This move now appears to be a “second” leg, not an extraordinarily large bear market rally and not a new cyclical bull market.

Feb 02 1984

Inside the Stock Market

  • Feb 2, 1984

Our Major Trend Index says it’s still a cyclical bull market. The market is now in final washout phase of the long complex correction dating back to late June 1983. Expect to see lows momentarily, followed by powerful upswing carrying to new market highs by summer.

Jul 07 1983

Inside the Stock Market

  • Jul 7, 1983

The stock market is maybe half or two-thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. But the current cyclical bull market is no longer so healthy. Mutual fund mania continues - factoring in the May ICI statistics over the last twelve months, net cash flow into equity oriented mutual funds is now up 10.8% of assets, equaling the previous high-water marks of 1955-1957.

May 06 1982

Inside the Stock Market

  • May 6, 1982

The stock market looks great. The Major Trend Index continues to substantiate the new cyclical bull market case. The Early Warning Index of market tops is a cool and comfortable +13, -3.

Apr 05 1982

Birth of the Bull

  • Apr 5, 1982

The stock market appears to have made a cyclical bear market low. The Early Warning Index of market bottoms, which turned Positive last issue (Feb. 26) has been confirmed by a move from Neutral to Positive by Major Trend Index. Equity earmarked funds should be put to work now.

Jan 06 1982

Inside the Stock Market

  • Jan 6, 1982

Still a super cycle bull market, but cyclical uptrend in question. Major Trend Index still positive but has slipped badly. Early Warning Index turned Negative Dec. 21…Caution!