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Treasuries

Apr 06 2018

Minding The Middle

  • Apr 6, 2018

As equity investors, we’ll readily admit to an excessive focus on the Federal Funds rate and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

Apr 06 2018

A “Drug-Free” Market Decline?

  • Apr 6, 2018

Yields on 10-year Treasuries are up 10 bps since stocks peaked in January, a clear break from the behavior of prior corrections. The last four stock declines of 10%+ were self-medicating—having been accompanied by bond yield declines of 50 to 150 basis points.

Feb 07 2018

What Yield “Kills” The Secular Bond Bull?

  • Feb 7, 2018

Bond market strategists remain hell bent on identifying the key yield level on 10-year Treasuries at which one can finally declare an end to the 1981-20XX secular bond bull market.

Jun 07 2017

Goldilocks—Enjoy It While It Lasts

  • Jun 7, 2017

The best interpretation of the current cross-asset message is the scenario of goldilocks, and there are reasons to believe this is a possible scenario for the near term.

Sep 08 2014

Current State Of Stock-Bond Relationship = “Easing”

  • Sep 8, 2014

We define four states of the stock-bond relationship based on the directions of stock price and bond yield movements; stocks fear tightening more than true risks, while bonds are more responsive to Risk-On and Risk-Off.

Jun 06 2013

Long U.S. Treasuries: Big Move In May, Downside Still Significant

  • Jun 6, 2013

20 Year T-Bond: 5 3/8’s, Maturity: 2/15/2031, YTM 2.88% (vs. April 30th YTM at 2.39%)

Mar 05 2007

Bond Sentiment Remains Depressed…..Short-Term Rally Could Continue

  • Mar 5, 2007

Inflation pressures have not yet abated and we believe that bond yields could tick up later this year, as those pressures eventually flow through to the CPI. 

Feb 05 2007

2007 Outlook: CPI Tame First Half With Moderate Economic Growth

  • Feb 5, 2007

We believe interest rates are headed higher in 2007. Economy picked up some in Q4. Bond market sentiment still looks too optimistic.

Oct 04 2006

Bond Market Remains Overextended...Correction Ahead?

  • Oct 4, 2006

Bond market remains ahead of itself and is vulnerable to correction.

Sep 05 2006

Bond Market Overextended...Correction Ahead?

  • Sep 5, 2006

Bond market seems to be anticipating three key developments: Fed’s stance could switch from tightening to easing, the economy is slowing significantly, and inflation is licked.

Aug 05 2006

Economic Outlook

  • Aug 5, 2006

Continue to project higher interest rates over the next six months, particularly longer maturities. Short rates could begin to decline by early-mid 2007, after Fed finishes tightening and economy slows.

Jul 04 2006

Economic Outlook

  • Jul 4, 2006

It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening, and consumer spending a big question mark. 

Jun 05 2006

Economic Outlook

  • Jun 5, 2006

Continue to project higher interest rates over the next six months, particularly longer maturities. Further Fed action will be more “data driven”.

May 03 2006

Economic Outlook

  • May 3, 2006

Continue to project higher interest rates over the next six months, particularly longer maturities. After rate hike in May, Fed’s actions will be more “data driven”.

Apr 05 2006

Economic Outlook

  • Apr 5, 2006

Based on our 6-12 month yield targets, short end of the yield curve looking more attractive.

Apr 05 2006

Has The Yield Curve Lost Its Luster?

  • Apr 5, 2006

The traditional definition versus the new definition of an inversion...How real GDP has responded historically to past yield curve inversions….Effect of inversions on Financial stocks.

Mar 05 2006

What Does An Inverted Yield Curve Imply For The Financials?

  • Mar 5, 2006

Conventional wisdom states that inverted yield curves are bad for Financial groups. Doug Ramsey looks at the history of past inversions.

Mar 05 2006

Economic Outlook

  • Mar 5, 2006

It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending a big question mark. 

Feb 05 2006

Economic Outlook

  • Feb 5, 2006

It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending being a big question mark.

Jan 04 2006

Economic Outlook

  • Jan 4, 2006

The current economic expansion is considered late stage.

Dec 04 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Dec 4, 2005

Still view long rates as potentially vulnerable to strong economy and unexpected inflation.

Nov 05 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Nov 5, 2005

Still bearish on the bond market based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.

Oct 05 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Oct 5, 2005

Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.

Sep 05 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Sep 5, 2005

Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.

Aug 03 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Aug 3, 2005

Still bearish on the bond market. From today’s low interest rate levels, there is not much upside, but downside is significant!

Jul 04 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Jul 4, 2005

Still bearish on the bond market. May deficit report encouraging.

Jun 04 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Jun 4, 2005

The current economic expansion will reach four years on 9/30/2005. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.

May 04 2005

Economic Outlook

  • May 4, 2005

Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.

 

Apr 05 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Apr 5, 2005

The U.S. deficit was not a bond market negative in 2004, but continuing long term deficits will become a negative.

Mar 05 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Mar 5, 2005

The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.

Feb 05 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Feb 5, 2005

The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.

Jan 05 2005

Economic Outlook

  • Jan 5, 2005

Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.

Dec 05 2004

Economic Outlook

  • Dec 5, 2004

Deficit narrowing. Last three months’ (including first month of fiscal 2005) receipts remarkably strong, while outlays have declined.

Nov 03 2004

Economic Outlook

  • Nov 3, 2004

Everyday consumers must find it difficult to believe twelve month inflation is just 2.5% (CPI-U), especially when filling up their gas tanks and their grocery carts.

Oct 05 2004

Economic Outlook

  • Oct 5, 2004

Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.

Sep 05 2004

Economic Outlook

  • Sep 5, 2004

Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.

Aug 04 2004

Economic Outlook

  • Aug 4, 2004

GDP growth of 4.0% projected for 2004. Improved 2004 budget deficit projections a short term positive for bonds but eventually could be a negative.

Jul 04 2004

Economic Outlook

  • Jul 4, 2004

GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

Jun 01 2004

Economic Outlook

  • Jun 1, 2004

GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($507 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

May 05 2004

Economic Outlook

  • May 5, 2004

GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($483 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.