Research.LeutholdGroup

In recent years, stock market swings have become a more reliable predictor of tax receipts than the economy, itself. If both were to roll over, deficits in the “teens” as a share of GDP—and Fed efforts to deal with them—are unavoidable.

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The COVID rescue plan has generated a multi-trillion-dollar deluge of federal spending that has trickled down to government transfer payments, personal incomes, retail sales, and surging EPS. When considering all of these data series in relation to their long-term trends, it’s truly remarkable that the only item analysts consider to be “transitory” is inflation.

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