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Election Cycle

Apr 07 2022

Cycles: A Key “Window” Is Approaching

  • Apr 7, 2022

Next month kicks off the seasonally-weak phase of the stock market’s Annual Cycle: May-October. Overlaid on that is the statistically vulnerable stretch of the four-year Election Cycle: the “mid-point” of the Mid-Term Year. There’s a positive way to spin this mid-term malaise: The cycles imply that an ideal window for a major low is about to open.

Nov 06 2020

The Stock Market & U.S. Presidential Election Cycle Revisited

  • Nov 6, 2020

We crunch some numbers to see how 2020’s stock market trends have fared compared to the typical election year, and we slice and dice past post-election year trends at the sector and industry group levels to look at potential opportunities in the coming year.

Jan 10 2020

The Stock Market Is Trading Like Trump’s A Democrat!

  • Jan 10, 2020

Around the time of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, we observed that prevailing valuations argued against him witnessing big stock market gains during his first term.

Oct 05 2018

Seasonality Set To Favor The Bulls

  • Oct 5, 2018

Our bearish stance could be tested by the arrival of the seasonally strongest six-month window of the four-year electoral cycle. Since 1926, November of the mid-term year through April of the pre-election year has produced an average un-annualized S&P 500 +16.4% total return.

May 06 2016

Sell In May: Statistical Update

  • May 6, 2016

If this year’s interest in the “Sell In May” phenomenon is any indication, there remains plenty of skepticism surrounding the market’s recent rebound. The good news is that the “Sell In May” play has been weakest during presidential election years.