Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth
Jul
08
2023
Don’t Let Economists Work From Home…
Last month, we noted that Jay Powell’s preferred measure of the yield curve—Near Term Forward Spread (NTFS)—was a winner, but a newly introduced index by the Fed, “Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G),” is a dud. Several simple forecasting gauges we’ve relied on for years are considerably more effective.