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Jul 08 2023
Stock Market

Don’t Let Economists Work From Home…

  • Jul 8, 2023

Last month, we noted that Jay Powell’s preferred measure of the yield curve—Near Term Forward Spread (NTFS)—was a winner, but a newly introduced index by the Fed, “Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G),” is a dud. Several simple forecasting gauges we’ve relied on for years are considerably more effective.

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NTFS Near-Term Forward Spread Recession Risk Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth FCI-G Real GDP Growth

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About The Author

Doug Ramsey / Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund.

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