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Fixed Income

Feb 07 2014

U.S. Bonds

  • Feb 7, 2014

Given the higher volatility and increased risk aversion, high grade credits are attractive as the negative relationship between rates and credit spreads dampens the volatility of this asset class.

Jan 08 2014

U.S. Bonds

  • Jan 8, 2014

The thin liquidity likely magnified the move in both rates and credit spreads, but we continue seeing a friendly macro environment that supports high quality credits.

Dec 06 2013

US Bond Grades

  • Dec 6, 2013

The renewed participation of credits in the risk asset rally is a welcome sign.

Sep 10 2013

U.S. High Yield Corporate Bonds: Maintain Neutral

  • Sep 10, 2013

On the positive side, the fundamental picture is still healthy for most U.S. high yield issuers, and defaults are expected to be low. On the negative side, weakening inflation expectations is a divergence that bears close monitoring. We will exercise patience and wait for a better entry point.

Sep 10 2013

U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: Maintain Favorable

  • Sep 10, 2013

This is consistent with our overall cautious view on credits. Credit spreads continued narrowing despite higher volatility in the bond markets.

Aug 07 2013

U.S. High Yield Corporate Bonds: Maintain Neutral

  • Aug 7, 2013

Over the past few months we’ve seen the largest high yield bond fund outflow since 2000. We will exercise patience for now and wait for a better entry point.

Aug 07 2013

U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: Maintain Favorable

  • Aug 7, 2013

Despite the exodus from all bond classes in the last few months, longer term demand for safe spreads is likely to remain strong and investment grade issuance has dropped significantly.

Feb 06 2013

The Math Doesn’t Work For Long-Term Treasuries

  • Feb 6, 2013

The recent upside breakout in the U.S. 10-year yield was successful, and it appears interest rates will remain in the new higher range for now. But what are the short-term implications of higher U.S. Treasury rates on asset allocation decisions?

 

Mar 05 2008

Not As Bad As January...

  • Mar 5, 2008

First, let us be thankful February 29th only occurs every four years. No, we haven’t done a historical performance analysis of past leap year extra days, but you can be certain somebody now has. Whatever, it was a bad end to February 2008.

Jan 05 2005

Did You Have The Right Mix In 2004?

  • Jan 5, 2005

Small Cap Stocks were hands down winners relative to large caps, while just edging out mid caps. This is the fifth consecutive year of small cap superiority.

Sep 04 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Sep 4, 2000

The U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but there are now more signs of a slowdown ahead. Global economy is slowing down even more.

Aug 04 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Aug 4, 2000

Economy still has considerable momentum, but there are signs of a slowdown in the second half. Still expect further Fed tightening. Expect inflation rates of change to soon peak, then cool off in Q4.

Jul 04 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Jul 4, 2000

· Still expect one more rate hike due to rekindling of stock market enthusiasm, prospects of accelerating inflation, and reported wage inflation numbers understated.

Jun 04 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Jun 4, 2000

Despite weaker economic news, still expect Fed to bump rates up at least once more.

May 04 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • May 4, 2000

Further Fed tightening to come…..Next few month inflation news likely to be scary.

Apr 05 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Apr 5, 2000

Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

Mar 05 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Mar 5, 2000

Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends make further Fed tightening almost a certainty.

Feb 05 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Feb 5, 2000

Yield curve inversion reflects supply/demand dynamics, expectations of further Fed tightening and unwinding of short strategies by speculators.

Jan 07 2000

Bond Market Summary

  • Jan 7, 2000

Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely.

Nov 04 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Nov 4, 1999

Rising stocks and still good economic news make third Fed boost likely.

Oct 05 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Oct 5, 1999

Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.

Sep 05 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Sep 5, 1999

Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.

Aug 04 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Aug 4, 1999

Last month’s 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely.

Jul 05 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Jul 5, 1999

Recent 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely but T-bonds now look to be in the high end of a buying zone.

Jun 02 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Jun 2, 1999

Strong likelihood the Fed will tighten in next few months, but today’s market rates may already factor in future 25-50 basis point Fed bump up in short rates.

May 05 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • May 5, 1999

New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Think Fed may tighten (50% likelihood) in coming months to slow down amazing economy.

Apr 04 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Apr 4, 1999

New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Fed may tighten in coming months to slow down this high powered economy.

Mar 02 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Mar 2, 1999

Big Rise in Treasury yields has resulted in improved risk/reward profile for T-bonds.

Jan 04 1999

Bond Market Summary

  • Jan 4, 1999

At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral.  U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.

Apr 05 1995

Bond Rally Lost Its Punch In March

  • Apr 5, 1995

Weight of the evidence bond market discipline shifted to negative from neutral this month.

Dec 05 1994

Economy Showing No Signs of Cooling Off

  • Dec 5, 1994

Economy Humming Along...Fed Not Done Yet...Inflation Still Number One Worry

Nov 05 1994

Inside the Bond Market

  • Nov 5, 1994

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

Oct 05 1994

Inside the Bond Market

  • Oct 5, 1994

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

Sep 05 1994

Inside the Bond Market

  • Sep 5, 1994

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis.

Aug 05 1994

Inside the Bond Market

  • Aug 5, 1994

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.

Jul 05 1994

Inside the Bond Market

  • Jul 5, 1994

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.

Nov 03 1993

Bonds: Guaranteed Long Term Underperformance???

  • Nov 3, 1993

Time for an attitude adjustment? We have seen some fat returns on long fixed income securities since rates peaked in 1981. What can we expect from bonds in the future? To help answer this question we look at three sample bonds using a 5 and 10 year risk/reward framework.