Skip to content

Junk Bonds

Oct 05 2019

Credit Cracking?

  • Oct 5, 2019

One of the key pillars of the bullish case has been the supposedly “benign” trend in corporate credit. While that’s been true for holders of the popular junk bond ETFs (HYG and JNK), the broader credit picture is not as reassuring.

Jul 07 2018

Trouble Is “Spreading”

  • Jul 7, 2018

Junk bond option-adjusted spreads (OAS) have remained relatively tight throughout the stock market pullback and recovery (Chart 1), assuring some bulls that the action is nothing more sinister than a “healthy and overdue” correction.

May 06 2016

An Alarming 2008 Analogy?

  • May 6, 2016

While breadth and leadership accompanying the upswing off February lows have been impressive, the most outstanding feature of this advance might be the confirmation provided by high yield bonds.

Apr 08 2015

Charts That Challenge Us…

  • Apr 8, 2015

While our disciplines continue to turn up enough bullish evidence to keep us cautiously positive toward stocks, we are seeing troubling signs by cyclicals (especially the Transports) and junk bonds.

Sep 07 2012

The Reach For Yield… And Its Consequences

  • Sep 7, 2012

Investor infatuation with portfolio income is higher than ever, just as there is less of it available than at any time in history.

Aug 03 2010

Buckle Up For The “Doldrums”

  • Aug 3, 2010

Beware summer doldrums, August has a knack of sometimes being a crazy month. Market continues to be viewed as being in a severe correction mode, rather than a full fledged bear market.



Oct 03 2007

Rising High Yield Spreads....Implications For An Agnostic Stock Market

  • Oct 3, 2007

Link between Junk bonds and stock market seems to be indicating that stock investors are ignoring factors pushing Junk bond yields higher.

Sep 05 2007

View From The North Country

  • Sep 5, 2007

August was comparable to flying through a category five hurricane, a violent storm with gut wrenching updrafts and downdrafts. The relatively low volume recovery from the August lows has the characteristics of a bear market rally, not the beginning of another major move to the upside.

Oct 05 2003

Below Average Returns May Be Expected When Junk Bond Yields Fall Below 9%

  • Oct 5, 2003

New study by The Leuthold Group suggests below average High Yield bond returns can be expected when Junk yields fall below 9%.

May 05 2003

Bond Market Summary

  • May 5, 2003

Is the Fed ready to buy Ten Year Treasuries, if necessary to stimulate the economy? This could certainly lead to another housing/refi boom, but will it be the catalyst to boost business spending/borrowing? We think not.

Dec 05 2000

View From The North Country

  • Dec 5, 2000

“What? You’re buying MORE Junk Bonds?!” “Regulation FD” could ultimately improve the depth and quality of analyst research, turning the focus back to more relevant, longer term outlooks. “Sell Side” Stock Research: The reasons why we no longer use it.

Nov 04 2000

View From The North Country

  • Nov 4, 2000

“What? You’re buying Junk Bonds?!” Although some may view this as a high-risk, contrarian bet, the logic behind the strategy is explained.

Jun 05 1992

Bond Market Summary

  • Jun 5, 1992

The bond market, helped out by some good CPI and PPI numbers, scored typical net gains of 2+ points in May. Long bond yields, corporates, treasury zeros and treasury coupon bond yields fell 20 basis points....all in all, a pretty good month.

May 05 1992

Bond Market Summary

  • May 5, 1992

The bond market continued to edge higher in the first part of April, but then the Chicago River drained the T-bond market of its liquidity, flooding out T-bond and T-note futures trading.

May 05 1991

Bond Market Summary

  • May 5, 1991

For the month of April, higher quality long bonds turned in small fractional gains. The economic tea leaves were mixed, inflation numbers were good, the dollar held up and short term rates came down. However, a big pick up in new fixed income offerings seemed to satisfy investor demand.

Apr 01 1991

Bond Market Summary

  • Apr 1, 1991

In March, the fixed income markets were a mixed bag. Short term rates fell 25 basis points and 90 day bills ended the month well below 6% (5.74%). Junk bonds extended their sharp February rally. Outside of short term rates and junk bonds, the fixed income markets recorded little net change in March.

Nov 01 1989

Bond Market Summary

  • Nov 1, 1989

Inflation continues to cool and the economy is providing more evidence of slowing, but we still have our reservations about the bond market and remain cautious.

Oct 01 1989

A Potential Tactical Move Into Junk Bonds

  • Oct 1, 1989

It still appears to be premature, but we are giving serious consideration to adding a package of selected high yield corporate bonds to the fixed income component of the two asset allocation models.

Jun 01 1989

Bond Market Summary

  • Jun 1, 1989

For quite some time this publication has had a pretty good feel for the bond market. But May surprised me. My expectation was a stronger market early in the May followed by a correction.

May 01 1989

Bond Market Summary

  • May 1, 1989

With at least some preliminary signs the economy is slowing, accompanied by more comforting PPI and CPI numbers, it would appear the Fed is relaxing a bit.