Research.LeutholdGroup

The market is at a critical juncture with oil-related assets very oversold while equities are holding near all-time highs. We continue to recommend taking a more defensive stance for now.

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Record issuance and oil-related weakness combined to drive the spreads wider but we remain Favorable on these bonds for now.

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We continue to like “safe spreads” and remain favorable on these bonds.

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Client Questions...What Do You Think About Gold?...How Municipal Bonds Compare With Taxables...Don't Short The Gambling Stocks Yet

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Corporates managed a gain in March but Treasuries were weak near month end. Developing an “unbiased” Bond Market Trend Index based on a list of factors that we feel are important in determining the overall health of the long U.S. bond market.

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The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-bonds, maybe much lower on a secular basis. The current correction might run to 12%-12.5% for T-bonds, but we are tempted to start a buying program before that.

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In recent weeks the municipal market has been relatively weak compared to other fixed income markets. Long municipal yields are now 89% of long T-bonds, back up to about the levels where we recommended our unorthodox move in early February. It looks like a great opportunity.

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Long-term municipals now extraordinarily cheap relative to other fixed income instruments. Strange as it may seem, Muni’s may even be relatively attractive for non-taxable portfolios.

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