Prediction
The “Star” Is Not Aligned For 2022
When we entered the business in 1990, our grandmother mailed us a decades-old clipping from a Minneapolis newspaper featuring a columnist’s cryptic take on a hand-rendered chart. He coyly claimed to have found it in “an old desk”—and it wasn’t until the internet age that we’d learn of its unattributed source.
Time Cycles Say There’ll Be Better Times Than 2022
Numerologists will be disappointed to learn that longer-term time cycles don’t line up for a prosperous 2022 for stocks. However, the historical “hit rates” aren’t high enough to justify running for cover if you have no other fundamental stock-market worries.
Ancient Forecasting Diagram Predicts Grim 2019
Published 60 years ago in a newspaper gossip column, this diagram forecasted a major market high in 1972 and a panic low in 1982.
Is The “Star” Aligned For 2019?
For those who remain skeptical that more stock market troubles lay ahead, we’ve supplemented the MTI and our other market tools with something truly authoritative: Evidence from a gossip column in a 1958 issue The Minneapolis Star!
The 2014 Outlook: More Volatility, But Ultimately An Up Year
Gains will likely be modest, and secondary stocks could finish the year flat-to-down. The year will likely be marred by a moderate to severe mid-year correction, and Small Caps could easily suffer a 20% hit during that swoon.
Predictions for 2012…
From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.
2011 In 2019?
Year-ahead stock market forecasts are now in hot demand, but of course are notoriously off the mark most years. Very long term forecasts (say, out to the end of the decade) are in virtually no demand, but are considerably easier to get close to the mark for those armed with the right tools.
2008: Less Than Great
Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.
View From The North Country
Steve Leuthold highlights his 2007 Outlook in this month’s “View From The North Country”.
Is January Performance Predictive?
A look at the January barometer, indicates there is not much evidence that a weak January market portends weak performance in the remainder of the year.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2004
This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.
View From The North Country
I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.
View From The North Country
What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.
The Year That Was
Remain bullish on the stock market, but don’t expect Main Street to be a major stock market factor in 2003. Today’s bull market expectations for the DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again. Leuthold’s New Year predictions for 2003.
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
View From The North Country
View is just for the fun of it this month: Fearless Forecasts 2000.
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s 2000 predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
Active Managers Beat Index Funds!
Just as many plan sponsors throw in the towel, active managers pull a great quarter out of their collective hat. What's in store for the second half of 1999?
View From The North Country
Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s 1999 predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.
View From The North Country
Each February, this publication, sometimes with help from our readers, constructs a series of "Fearless Forecasts".
Fearless Forecasts...1995
Each February, this publication, with help from our readers, constructs a series of "Fearless Forecasts".
View From The North Country
It is thermal pollution time. Read Leuthold’s 1995 forecasts for the stock and bond markets, earnings, interest rates, the economy, inflation, gold, the deficit, the dollar...and the Super Bowl.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in April
Leuthold "Polling the Pros" reveals that the consensus looks for a correction on a three month basis. One year poll has more balanced outlook.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in February
Whenever we have a significant number of investment professionals gathered together, we ask their stock market opinion via ballot, subsequently reporting the results in this publication.
View From the North Country
1994 Predictions: Stock market ultimately down, interest rates up, economy quite strong, inflation ticks up, budget deficit down, the dollar mixed, and an AFL team will win the Super Bowl.
Investor Attitudes: Polling The Pros At FIM East
In September, a poll was taken at the FIM East Conference luncheon where Steve was speaking. This is the first poll The Leuthold Group has taken since June.
Investor Attitudes: Polling The Pros (And Cons)
In early 1991, a continuing survey of client stock market attitudes was initiated (41 polls have been taken to date).
Fearless Forecasts...1993
Each year, along about this time, this publication (with help from our readers) makes a series of "Fearless Forecasts".
Polling the Pros: Strange Divergences
In May, polls were taken among our clients in New York and at the Market Technicians Association’s Annual Seminar in Naples, Florida. The results were quite different.
Polling the Pros
Recognizing the obvious client interest in the market views of other professionals, we are initiating “Polling the Pros”. Whenever we have a significant number of investment professionals gathered together, we will ask their stock market opinion via a ballot. So now when you ask us what Leuthold clients think of the market we will no longer have to wing it.
Questions And Answers
This publication often employs a question and answer format, providing answers to the questions being asked most frequently by institutional clients.
View From The North Country
Back On The Road.....
We are seeing clients In six cities during March. Scott Archer, Chuck Zender and myself will be In Denver, Portland and Seattle on March 13th, 14th, and 15th, visiting clients and hosting Leuthold Group luncheons.
View From The North Country
This issue includes some New Year's traditions. First, our economic and market outlook for the New Year.
View From The North Country
Another New Year has arrived.
Fearless Forecasts....1988
Each year, along about February, this publication makes a series of "Fearless Forecasts". Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions that appeared in last month's issue. Still, in the past, the "Fearless Forecasts" have, at times, been closer to the mark than the conventional predictions.
The 1988 Outlook
In this business, it is often best to conveniently forget what was said in the past.
View From The North Country
HAPPY NEW YEAR
Another New Year has arrived. Again tradition must be honored. Black-eyed peas have been consumed. The Big Ten representative has once again been trounced in the Rose Bowl. The champagne of New Year's Eve has again been driven from the body by the Bloody Marys of New Year's Day. Red Wolfe and friends again blew the roof off the Leuthold joint at the world's longest New Year's Day Brunch (twelve hours long this year, up from ten hours a year ago).
View From The North Country
Another New Year has arrived. Again tradition must be honored. Blacked-eyed peas have been consumed.