Research.LeutholdGroup

We cringe when we hear the Treasury Secretary or a regional Fed bank president dismiss the possibility of recession on the basis of “low unemployment and strong job gains.” Those measures are as “laggy” as any economic statistics the government publishes.

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The last few weeks offer plenty of evidence that the mania has moved into a more feverish phase, yet the Fed insists that it is still “not-even-thinking-about ‘thinking about’” raising interest rates. That dismissive attitude could well whip up an even higher fever in the months ahead.

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