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Recession Risk

Sep 08 2023

Fooling Ourselves?

  • Sep 8, 2023

In early September, the co-founder of one of the largest U.S. private equity firms declared that predicting recessions is a “fool’s errand.” We couldn’t disagree more.

Jul 08 2023

Don’t Let Economists Work From Home…

  • Jul 8, 2023

Last month, we noted that Jay Powell’s preferred measure of the yield curve—Near Term Forward Spread (NTFS)—was a winner, but a newly introduced index by the Fed, “Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G),” is a dud. Several simple forecasting gauges we’ve relied on for years are considerably more effective.

Jul 08 2023

Pretty Darn Neutral

  • Jul 8, 2023

Last month’s title, “Echoes of 2021,” didn’t fully capture the speculative fervor that’s gripped big Technology stocks—and the NYSE FANG+® Index immediately set out to rectify that shortfall by tacking on another 5% to bring its YTD return to +74%.

Jun 07 2023

Watching The Wealth Effect

  • Jun 7, 2023

“Real” stock-market wealth has declined considerably since late 2021 without yet delivering a knockout blow. But if the other key evidence detailed throughout this section is on the mark, that wallop is lurking in the very near future.