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Signals

Jan 08 2019

Watching For An Internal Washout

  • Jan 8, 2019

Having monitored market internals for warning signs for longer than we care to admit, it’s refreshing to turn around and watch many of the same signals for… wait for it... BUY signals!

Nov 07 2018

Bond Investors Get It Right Again!

  • Nov 7, 2018

Having devoted all of our professional lives to the monitoring and modeling of equity markets, we’re naturally ticked off that this year’s best stock market signals have in fact been rendered by bonds.

Feb 05 2016

Learning From Failures?

  • Feb 5, 2016

There’s an old trader’s adage which holds that “the most powerful sell signal is a failed buy signal.” Last fall we noted that European equities and Small Cap Value had triggered BUY signals on our Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum algorithm.

Dec 08 2015

BUY Signals In A Topping Market?

  • Dec 8, 2015

Here’s an example of just how disparate underlying market action has become: with the S&P 500 only 2% away from a cycle high, several major U.S. and foreign market indexes have already moved into an oversold position on the basis of our Very Long Term (VLT) algorithm—with a few (including EAFE, Chart 1) actually triggering “long-term, low-risk” BUY signals in the last two months! We are not sure what to make of this action.

Oct 07 2015

A Whimpering Sell Signal...

  • Oct 7, 2015

It’s been more than two years since NYSE Margin Debt broke out above its 2007 high, and we remember the rash of bearish commentary that accompanied that milestone. We later showed the Margin Debt increase was almost perfectly proportional to the gain in the stock market itself, and not a reason to turn bearish in and of itself. But our tune has changed.

Jul 08 2015

A BUY Signal That Says SELL?

  • Jul 8, 2015

Last month we discussed the negative market implications of May’s “Death Cross” signals in the Dow Transports and Dow Utilities.

Jun 02 1999

VLT Momentum Buy Signals...Good News For Small Cap Fans

  • Jun 2, 1999

Maybe we are too cautious about calling a turn in relative small cap performance. VLT work on Russell 2000 and Value Line now both giving buy signals.

Oct 05 1994

Major Trend Deteriorates In September, Remains Negative

  • Oct 5, 1994

Major Trend Index deteriorated by 591 points in September, and remains quite decisively in negative territory. We continue to approach equity investing with a great deal of caution, operating in a bear market mode.

Jul 05 1993

Early Warning Index

  • Jul 5, 1993

This aspect of our work has not been particularly helpful recently, even though it at times has been quite productive in years past. We can't squeeze blood out of a turnip and in recent years we haven't been able to squeeze a 7%-10% correction out of the low volatility market.

Nov 05 1992

Questions Clients Are Asking

  • Nov 5, 1992

Since the Milwaukee poll taken in early October, it appears that optimism has continued to build. This opinion is supported by the kinds of questions we are now fielding from clients.

Dec 05 1991

“When The Bears Have Thanksgiving…..”

  • Dec 5, 1991

As I recall, at one time I checked out the accuracy of this stock market folklore and it seemed to work pretty well. I think it will prove true again in 1991.

Sep 05 1991

August: A Dull Month (Except for Four Days)

  • Sep 5, 1991

If you had been vacationing on an island with no communication during the last two weeks of August, you’d think from the month to month statistics that August 1991 was a big late summer yawn.

Nov 01 1990

Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative

  • Nov 1, 1990

This issue marks the first anniversary of the most recent Major Trend Index sell signal, transmitted to clients on Halloween 1989. Here in October 1990, this work has improved significantly from a month ago.

Apr 01 1989

VLT Momentum: Based on DJIA Monthly Averages

  • Apr 1, 1989

In the fall of 1988, this publication detailed a very reliable long-term stock market indicator we call VLT momentum. Herein, we present the record tracking back to 1897, employing average monthly prices in the calculation rather than month end prices.

Mar 01 1989

Three Steps and Stumble

  • Mar 1, 1989

The most recent rise in the discount rate triggered the “Three Steps and Stumble” rule. Years ago, Edson Gould popularized this theory. In effect, it is based on the assumption that tight credit ultimately terminates a bull market.