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Stock/Bond Correlation

Jul 05 2019

Correlations Are Worthless, Except This One

  • Jul 5, 2019

We’ve never understood investment quants’ desire to project correlations among assets. Such correlations are inherently unstable.

Oct 05 2018

Stocks Not Yet Yielding To Yields

  • Oct 5, 2018

Regardless of how it’s measured, the liquidity available for global stocks continues to run off.

Sep 28 2018

New Highs In Stocks Have Some Unwanted Company

  • Sep 28, 2018

In recent commentaries, we’ve highlighted the surprising number of U.S. stocks making 52-week lows on both a daily and weekly basis, a sign that the market’s push higher has become more fractured. While pondering the significance of those lows, however, we missed a new 52-week high last Friday in a series we think will be especially critical to the stock market’s near-term fortunes: the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Specifically, the yield matched its weekly closing high of 3.07% posted on May 18th.

Jun 29 2017

Where The Bear Lingers

  • Jun 29, 2017

While the next recession could be caused by a variety of factors, we suspect the recovery will eventually end like most post-war expansions, only after a significant rise in interest rates.

Dec 07 2016

Rising Rates: Not Always A Death Knell

  • Dec 7, 2016

While the Dow Jones Bond Indicator has stood the test of time, history shows that rising bond yields are not always a bearish stock market phenomenon.

Jul 09 2013

Bonds & Cyclical Stocks “Decoupling”?

  • Jul 9, 2013

The relationship between U.S. Treasury bond yields and the relative performance of cyclical stocks versus their defensive consumer counterparts appears to be changing.