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Nov 05 2021

Fed Taper—Not A Policy Error

  • Nov 5, 2021

We believe concerns about central-bank policy error are mostly a foreign issue, because they have moved much more aggressively than the Fed. The market has shown no indication of a Fed-policy mistake and we are still on board with the reflation trade.

May 07 2014

10-Year Yield: More Downside

  • May 7, 2014

We expect the 245-250 barrier to be tested, and if it is decisively broken, much lower yields could be in the cards.

Feb 07 2014

U.S. 10-Year: 245-250 Area A Strong Barrier

  • Feb 7, 2014

We expect the 245-250 area, the upper bound of the previous lower range, to be a strong barrier.

Jan 08 2014

A Taper & Hibernating Bears

  • Jan 8, 2014

The rise in interest rates after the taper was on the back of low liquidity around the holidays. 3% is a pretty strong upper bound for the 10-year, and a failure to stay above this level will probably see a re- test of the 275 level in the near term. 

Dec 06 2013

10-Year: No December Taper, Back To The 250 Level

  • Dec 6, 2013

Given our assumption of no December taper and the fact that most of the recent rise in interest rates is due to an early-taper fear, we expect the 10-year yield to drop back to the 250 level.

Dec 06 2013

The Dual Mandate Presents A Clear Dilemma For The Fed

  • Dec 6, 2013

The “dual mandate,” which means the Fed is paying close attention to both inflation and employment, presents a clear dilemma for the Fed when it comes time to decide on a taper.

Nov 07 2013

10-Year: Year-End Target Still 250 BPS, Interim Volatility Expected

  • Nov 7, 2013

We don’t think the numbers between now and the Fed’s December meeting will be strong enough to convince it to start tapering this year. No taper until 2014, in our opinion.

Nov 07 2013

Cyclical Stocks: Is It Finally Getting “Late?”

  • Nov 7, 2013

There’s no reason to run for cover if the Early Cyclicals have topped out.

Sep 10 2013

Data Dependency—September Taper Still Likely

  • Sep 10, 2013

More upside surprises are still likely and, despite the disappointing jobs report, the overall economic picture still supports a September taper. The improving economic picture is not just happening within the U.S., but in other major countries. We still believe the upside for the U.S. 10-year is limited.

Aug 07 2013

10-Year: Taper the Taper—Upside Limited

  • Aug 7, 2013

If interest rates keep going higher from here, we would run the risk of derailing a still-fragile recovery. As long as the Fed tapering uncertainty exists, we expect higher volatility on the 10-year yield to persist in the mean time.