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Jan 08 2019

Tightening And Trade Risks Still Underestimated

  • Jan 8, 2019

Many were caught off guard by the relentless drop in stock prices and bond yields, but we think the real problem is that most people have underestimated the twin threats of central bank tightening and the ongoing trade war with China.

Apr 07 2017

Anatomy Of A Tightening Cycle

  • Apr 7, 2017

The tapering of QE, clearly a tightening move, complicates the definition of the current tightening cycle.

Feb 05 2016

Market’s Message To The Fed: Stop The Tightening!

  • Feb 5, 2016

We think the Fed’s projection of four more hikes this year is absolutely unachievable, and we are no doubt siding with the market’s current projection of one hike, at most (if any), this year.

Mar 07 2014

Another Kind Of Decoupling?

  • Mar 7, 2014

We’ve discussed the interrelationships between industrial commodities, commodity-oriented equities and Emerging Market stocks. Getting one’s bet right on any of these three has generally led to profitable positions in all three. But that certainly hasn’t been true in recent months.

Feb 07 2014

Consumer Discretionary: End Of The Run?

  • Feb 7, 2014

Last month we suggested the top sector for 2013 would fall from grace in 2014, and the Consumer Discretionary stocks have been quick to cooperate in the last five weeks.