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Trade

Jan 08 2019

Tightening And Trade Risks Still Underestimated

  • Jan 8, 2019

Many were caught off guard by the relentless drop in stock prices and bond yields, but we think the real problem is that most people have underestimated the twin threats of central bank tightening and the ongoing trade war with China.

Aug 07 2018

Is The Trade War Short-Term Bullish?

  • Aug 7, 2018

We believe the U.S. free-trade initiatives of the last 25 years have been wildly bullish for the stock market.

Apr 06 2018

Trade War & Libor—More Bark Than Bite?

  • Apr 6, 2018

Isn’t a trade war more bark than bite? We think a full-blown trade war may be eventually negotiated away but the process is not necessarily painless to investors.

Mar 07 2018

More On The Dollar Bear Market

  • Mar 7, 2018

A potential trade war (not quite there yet) is not good for the dollar as it will inevitably invite retaliation and sour sentiment toward dollar assets.

Dec 07 2016

Trump Rally—More Tortoise & Less Hare Please

  • Dec 7, 2016

Market reaction since the election has been right on the money. What we didn’t expect was the speed and the magnitude of the so-called “Trump Trade."