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Mar 28 2019
Paulsen

Has The Yield Curve Been TRUMPed?

  • Mar 28, 2019

The U.S. yield curve has inverted (at least the 10-year Treasury yield to either the 3-month T-bill or the Fed funds rate) and captured the full attention of investors. Rightly so, since a yield curve inversion has historically been an excellent indicator of a pending recession. However, a condition that has always existed in the post-war era when the yield curve has inverted is absent today.

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About The Author

James Paulsen / Chief Investment Strategist

James Paulsen Chief Investment Strategist

Jim is Chief Investment Strategist of The Leuthold Group, LLC. He is a member of the investment committee, authors market and economic commentary, and works with the Leuthold investment team.

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Vol. 39 No. 10

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Summary (8) Corporate Credit (1) Junk Bonds (20) Credit Spreads (9) NOPE Index (15) ISM Non-Manufacturing (1) Inversion (3) Cyclical Peak (9) Business Cycle (4) S&P 500 (281) Yield Curve (60) Consumer Confidence (43) Boom/Bust Indicator (4) 10-Month Moving Crossover Strategy (6) Russell Microcap Index (3) Fed Policy (107) Microcaps (1) Russell 2000 (33) VLT Signals (11) VLT Momentum (9)