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5-Year Treasury

Nov 05 2022

Which Yield Curve?

  • Nov 5, 2022

Last month’s inversion in the 10-Yr./3-Mo. Treasury spread further tilts an already lopsided scale in favor of a U.S. recession in 2023. That spread has been considered the gold standard from an economic forecasting perspective, and is the basis for the New York Fed’s Recession Probability estimate (which, by the way, should break above its critical 35% threshold when it’s published later this month.)

Feb 05 2021

Minding The “Middle”

  • Feb 5, 2021

When investors ponder the level of yields that might pose a problem for stocks, it’s invariably the U.S. 10-Yr. Treasury bond that’s referenced. That’s fine, but the middle part of the Treasury curve has had just as strong a relationship with stocks, historically, as have longer-dated bonds.

Dec 07 2018

Deep-Six The “Threes-Fives”

  • Dec 7, 2018

We’ve sometimes called the yield curve our “favorite economist,” so we were amused when some enthusiastic data miner in the Treasury market tried to slip us a cheap imitation in late November.