Last month’s inversion in the 10-Yr./3-Mo. Treasury spread further tilts an already lopsided scale in favor of a U.S. recession in 2023. That spread has been considered the gold standard from an economic forecasting perspective, and is the basis for the New York Fed’s Recession Probability estimate (which, by the way, should break above its critical 35% threshold when it’s published later this month.)
Nov
05
2022
Which Yield Curve?
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Inversion 10-Year Treasurys 3-Month Treasury Yield Curve Treasury Yield Curve Economy Recession Probability 5-Year Treasury Yield SpreadLogin
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