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Dec 05 2020

Everything’s Great, And Everyone Knows It

  • Dec 5, 2020

The “Biden Bump” brushed away any lingering technical deficiencies in the stock market, but that happy state of affairs is reflected in extremely frothy-looking short-term sentiment indictors. We are riding the momentum to some extent, but with a lower base-level of exposure.

Oct 05 2018

Stock Market Observations

  • Oct 5, 2018

Throughout the spring and summer, the market could alternatively be characterized as “divergent” or “disjointed”—but until very recently it could not be considered “distributive.” Now, Mid and Small Caps have hit a short-term air pocket and breadth figures were exceptionally poor at September’s scattered highs in the DJIA and S&P 500.

Jan 06 2018

“Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There!”

  • Jan 6, 2018

Inaction has been a richly rewarded trait throughout the current bull market, and especially in 2017.

Nov 06 2015

“Top In” Or “Topping Out?”

  • Nov 6, 2015

The stock market rally has carried far enough to flip some of our trend-following work bullish, lifting the Major Trend Index to a low-neutral reading. The improvement prompted an increase in asset allocation portfolios’ net equity exposure to 42% (up from 36% previously).

Aug 07 2014

No Time For The Hamptons

  • Aug 7, 2014

We’ve lived through many other low-volatility market rallies, but until the last couple of months we hadn’t experienced one in which clients, colleagues, and commentators were complaining so loudly of boredom.

Dec 06 2013

A Quick Technical Take

  • Dec 6, 2013

If a bear market is imminent, it will unfold with less “internal” forewarning than any cyclical decline since the late 1930s.