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Capacity Utilization/Dollar Ratio

Dec 07 2021

Commodities Cooling In 2022?

  • Dec 7, 2021

It’s easy to misread where the true “consensus” stands on any financial forecast. Here’s a disconnect we see in current consensus thought: The “crowd” seems broadly bullish on commodities, yet the same crowd (previously known as Team Transitory) thinks consumer price inflation is near a cycle high.

Jul 08 2020

Commodity Comeback?

  • Jul 8, 2020

Many analysts thought the last cycle would end with a bit of “fire” in the form of higher commodity and consumer prices, and they might well argue they would have been right if not for the eruption of COVID-19.

Aug 02 2019

Icing Over?

  • Aug 2, 2019

Will this economic cycle end with “fire” (overheating) or “ice” (a whiff of deflation)? Interestingly, hedges against both outcomes have performed well in recent months, with both gold and Treasury bonds spiking. For many reasons, though, we believe the U.S. expansion is more likely to end in a deflationary bust.

Feb 07 2019

Sifting Through The Commodity Carnage

  • Feb 7, 2019

Commodities were the worst performer among the major asset classes during 2018, with the S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index losing 13.8% on a total return basis.