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Consumer Confidence - Present Situation

Sep 08 2023

Confidence Cracking?

  • Sep 8, 2023

After hovering near the highs of the post-COVID expansion, in August, the Present Situation Index turned down, and is now below its 10-month moving average for the first time since December. When this measure is at a high level, but declining (like now), it is the worst backdrop for stock performance.

Dec 13 2022

Confidence & Causality

  • Dec 13, 2022

It will be years before policymakers know the long-term effects of the COVID experiment with Modern Monetary Theory. However, the episode has helped answer, once and for all, a question that’s troubled psychologists forever: Money can buy happiness! But it can’t buy hope.

Aug 05 2022

Confidence Cracking?

  • Aug 5, 2022

The theory of “contrary opinion” is important to market analysis, but so is an understanding of its limitations. When investor-sentiment surveys dipped sharply in late January, we warned that the declines (which are usually signals to “buy”) might instead mark the beginning of an important trend change. 

Jul 08 2022

Sentimental Musings

  • Jul 8, 2022

Most sentiment measures show none of the frothiness that lingered in the months after the Y2K Tech bust. Rather, some exhibit actions reminiscent of early 2008.