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Corporate Bond Yield

Apr 07 2023

Something BAA-d Brewing?

  • Apr 7, 2023

Tightening peaked in Q4-2022, with the BAA yield at 266 bps above its year-earlier level—the most contractionary move since the early 1980s. If the standard lead-time applies, the full impact will be felt in Q4-2023.

Apr 07 2020

Confidence Is The Key

  • Apr 7, 2020

The bull case for a “brief” pandemic-related recession and powerful recovery is the same as the bull case from two months ago for “no recession or bear market” at all: stimulus (as if that’s exactly what the U.S. economy has lacked for the last 11 years).

Apr 07 2020

Looking To Credit For Clues

  • Apr 7, 2020

One of the first cautionary signals to emerge during the market’s two-year topping process was the failure of spreads on low grade corporate bonds to return to their early-2018 cycle “tights,” despite last year’s surge to new stock market highs.

Jun 21 2019

The Market Is On Fire… Unless It’s Ice

  • Jun 21, 2019

Yesterday’s S&P 500 new all-time high triggered a few simple internal studies we’ve used to help shape second-half expectations for the stock market.


Apr 05 2019

BAA Yields: The Baaaad And The Good!

  • Apr 5, 2019

Last fall, we repeatedly noted that low grade corporate credits—measured by Moody’s BAA bond yields—were behaving, well, baaadly.

Nov 09 2018

Have We Already Had The Year-End Rally?

  • Nov 9, 2018

In the March Green Book, we discussed the long history of stock market difficulties during mid-term election years. Incredibly, nine of the past 11 cyclical bear market lows have occurred in these years, with eight of those nine recorded during the seasonally-weak months of May through October (Table 1).