Research.LeutholdGroup

NIPA’s “all-economy” profit margin declined a bit in Q4—which typically peaks before SPX profits—and that falloff coincided with the economy officially reaching full employment, based on the CBO’s Nominal GDP Output Gap. When the Output Gap has flipped positive (like in Q4), corporate profit margins usually come under immediate pressure.

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Future generations are now footing the bill, not only for today’s entitlement recipients, but for record corporate profits as well! (Consider a gift of QQQ shares to help them pay for it all.)

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