Research.LeutholdGroup

There’s an underlying faith that bureaucrats at the Fed and Treasury will keep good and bad businesses, alike, afloat—and overvalued. We’re still trying to unearth a single historical analog that merits such confidence.

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The June 2016 Brexit referendum kicked off a tortured process for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. However, the wheels of international politics turn slowly, and the original date of formal withdrawal was set as March 29, 2019. As the calendar rolled into 2019 it became obvious that the March closing date was not going to be met, and concerns mounted over delays, procedures, deal-or-no-deal, a new prime minister, and even calls for another vote.

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Our Risk Aversion Index fell sharply last month and triggered a new “Lower Risk” signal. Caution is still strongly recommended, and we favor higher-quality credit within fixed income.

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Profitable investing overseas requires not one, but two, successful decisions: 1) select an outperforming asset class; and, 2) be in a currency that provides a favorable foreign exchange impact.

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A strong dollar and low commodity prices are major forces dragging down EM currencies across the board.

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The recent sudden strength in the dollar is mostly attributable to the divergent central bank policies. This supports a bullish dollar outlook over the medium term.

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The emerging markets are in a much better financial position to weather any financial turmoil than they have been in the past.

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In the medium term (1-2 years), weaker currency actually leads to lower net exports because export prices go up, instead of down, when currency depreciates.

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Yes, the S&P 500 is near all time highs, but what if the index was denominated in other currencies? Denominated in euros, the S&P 500 is still 30% below its March 2000 high.

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In Steve Leuthold’s 2005 ‘Outlook’, he called for a strengthening of the Dollar vs. the Euro in 2005, with the Dollar/Euro exchange rate hitting 1.16 before year end. So far, the dollar has made good progress towards achieving that target.

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Currency speculators very destructive to global economies. Jesse “The Body” Ventura's victory was not a whim. How much does it cost to get your “Fanny in the Seat?” A look at the financials of baseball.

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Combination of seasonal trend and recent sharp drop in gold shares too tempting to pass up.

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