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Oct 07 2022

No Longer An Emphatic “NOPE”

  • Oct 7, 2022

While the MTI’s Cyclical category remains hostile at -3, we’ve observed steady improvement in its leading inflation components. Especially notable is the reversal in the NOPE Index (ISM New Orders Minus Price Index).

Aug 12 2022

Are You Better Off Than You Were Forty Years Ago?

  • Aug 12, 2022

Old timers will recognize our title as a twist on Ronald Reagan’s clincher in the final 1980 presidential debate with Jimmy Carter.

We recalled Reagan’s line while preparing for today’s 40th anniversary of the great 1982 secular stock-market low. Investors in the S&P 500 have earned an annualized total return of +12.4% since that trough, about two percentage points above the long-term average.

Jun 04 2021

Research Preview: Is “Manager Skill” Cyclical?

  • Jun 4, 2021

The active-passive performance derby is cyclical, determined not by the ebb and flow of portfolio managers’ brilliance but, rather, by market conditions and the slippage that arises from imperfectly comparing funds and benchmarks. 

Nov 07 2018

Brick & Mortar Retail Evades October Sell-Off

  • Nov 7, 2018

Although Discretionary stocks broadly underperformed during October’s market decline, prominent amongst the very top industry group performers was a rather unexpected genre of industries—brick & mortar retail. Not only did this cohort hold up during October’s tumult, but many of the underlying stocks have been posting strong returns all year.

Mar 07 2017

Inflation: Just A Cyclical Uptick

  • Mar 7, 2017

We should emphasize that any inflation pickup is likely to be a traditional, late-cycle phenomenon stemming from rising wage growth and rebounding commodity prices. We do not expect a secular move toward significantly higher inflation rates (say, north of 3.0%-3.5%).

Sep 08 2016

EM Leadership: Just The Beginning?

  • Sep 8, 2016

Our EM Allocation Model triggered a BUY at the end of August after 5 1/2-years in bear mode. This upgrade is consistent with a cyclical leadership run of one to four years relative to Developed Markets.

Feb 07 2014

Stick With Strength

  • Feb 7, 2014

The industry price momentum effect - observable in data from the last several decades - has strongly reasserted itself in the last 18-24 months.

Feb 07 2014

Secular Bull Or Bear?

  • Feb 7, 2014

Is a new secular bull market underway? New highs in essentially all U.S. undermine the argument from the shrinking pool of secular bears. But new converts to the bull thesis should be concerned about the valuation levels already reached.

Apr 05 2013

Fund Flows Still Not Quite As They Appear

  • Apr 5, 2013

In this report we take an in-depth look at the evolution of the industry, particularly the U.S. mutual fund industry, to help understand how some fund flow trends are more of an indication of evolving investor preferences instead of an indication of retail investor sentiment toward a particular asset class.

May 04 2012

The Bigger The Bear, The Better The Bull?

  • May 4, 2012

Does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?


Nov 05 2011

Ain’t Nobody Happy

  • Nov 5, 2011

Despite the big October rebound, Doug Ramsey examines various market players and finds that dissatisfaction with recent market moves may proliferate among all but a select few.

Nov 04 2011

Demise Of Corporate Tax Revenues? A Look At Trends Of Corporate Tax Vs. Individual

  • Nov 4, 2011

This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines Federal tax revenues from corporations versus individuals. Despite strong revenue and earnings growth, corporations paid fewer taxes this year; all of the government’s revenue increase came from individuals.


Feb 04 2011

Global Valuations: Reverting To The Trough

  • Feb 4, 2011

From our perspective as disciples of Normalized EPS, the entire bull market to date has come from P/E expansion. However, that stands to change as global Normalized EPS are again on the rise.


Oct 05 2009

Be A Buyer In An October Scare

  • Oct 5, 2009

Following a strong September, October may be a little weaker. However, readers should use any October scare to buy equities in anticipation of strong end to 2009.


Oct 05 2009

“Secular” Is In The Eye Of The Beholder

  • Oct 5, 2009

Secular versus Cyclical markets. It shouldn’t really matter. Investors can lose a lot waiting to be right. The Key is to focus on the cyclical movements within a secular bull or bear market.

May 04 2009

Is Another Major Low Lurking Beyond 2009?

  • May 4, 2009

Several independent methods are presented that seem to triangulate on the years 2012 and 2013 as candidates for another significant stock market low  - - maybe the final low of a secular bear market which began in 2000?


Mar 04 2009

Is There Any Perspective For Today’s Stock Market?

  • Mar 4, 2009

Eric Bjorgen searches for something beyond The Great Depression or 1990’s Japan. See what he found in this month’s Of Special Interest.

Aug 04 2001

The Importance Of Normalizing Earnings

  • Aug 4, 2001

Earnings are cyclical! This becomes especially obvious near peaks and troughs.