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Elections

Aug 17 2018

Stock Market Defies Seasonal Gravity

  • Aug 17, 2018

“That which does not kill us, makes us stronger” might be a good motto for this never-ending bull market. The bull continues to shrug off the effects of both Quantitative Tightening and an escalating trade war, and it’s doing so during a seasonal stretch in which many of its predecessors have sunk to their knees (if not their demise).

Oct 07 2014

Cycles: Bearish Window Closing, Another Opening...

  • Oct 7, 2014

We wrote in May the mid-year months of a mid-term election year are historically the weakest for the stock market from a calendar perspective. Large Caps, however, have mostly bucked that pattern.

Oct 06 2014

Mid-Term Election – Favorable For Stocks

  • Oct 6, 2014

General patterns are a weaker dollar, rising stocks and range-bound bond yields.

May 07 2014

Two Market Anomalies Intact: A Quantitative Review

  • May 7, 2014

We are entering the most bearish window among the potential combinations of the Presidential Election Cycle and the Annual Cycle.

Jan 08 2014

Emerging Markets: Dismal 2013, Hopeful 2014

  • Jan 8, 2014

What worked, what didn’t; what you need to consider for investing in Emerging Markets this year.

Nov 06 2012

Is The Glass “Half Full”?

  • Nov 6, 2012

A “dozen” major market measures have moved to new bull market highs in the last three months. But many of these have been the groups that do best when “risk” is “off,” and may be a reason “Ain’t Nobody Happy,” even in an up year. 

Oct 04 2012

Stock Market Observations

  • Oct 4, 2012

The U.S. bull market is mature and I believe the odds are better than even that 2013 will see a cyclical top.

 

Sep 07 2012

Major Trend Index Fading As “That Time Of Year” Looms

  • Sep 7, 2012

With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.

Sep 07 2012

Presidential Elections And Financial Assets

  • Sep 7, 2012

Does The Market Have A Party Preference In The Presidential Election? Results are a wash, so investors might rethink their assumptions about party affiliation and market performance.

Feb 05 2012

Predictions for 2012…

  • Feb 5, 2012

From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.

 

Dec 04 2010

The Charts Of The Year

  • Dec 4, 2010

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look back at and updates some our favorite charts from 2010.

 

Nov 04 2010

So Much For “Red October”

  • Nov 4, 2010

Now that the election is over and QE2 in the works, resist the temptation to “sell the news.” We expect to see the market rally through the end of the year. Sentiment still benign and valuations still attractive.

 

Sep 03 2010

A Mid-Term Exam: What The Upcoming Elections Could Mean For The Stock Market

  • Sep 3, 2010

Prompted by a client request, Eric Bjorgen examines the impact of mid-term elections on the stock market.

Nov 04 2009

Countering The Consensus Gloom

  • Nov 4, 2009

There’s an overwhelming consensus that the U.S. economy has slipped into a long-term phase of declining growth in real GDP and chronically higher unemployment. Here’s a dissenting opinion from a client, along with Steve Leuthold’s response.

Dec 05 2006

View From The North Country

  • Dec 5, 2006

Leuthold shares summary comments on various subjects, such as Consumer Sentiment, and the dollar, among others. Also, airlines as growth stocks (?) and the 2006 Elections: the Incumbent advantage still dominates.

 

Nov 05 2006

View From The North Country

  • Nov 5, 2006

Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.

Nov 03 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Nov 3, 2004

An analysis comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

Oct 05 2004

View From The North Country

  • Oct 5, 2004

After all the outrage over Enron and other accounting scandals, Congress is now working to over rule the FASB recommendations and guidelines regarding the accounting for options. They have clearly caved to the Tech lobby and their campaign contributions.

Oct 05 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Oct 5, 2004

The average gain for the entire 12 month period spanning the pre- and post-election periods is not much different from the average gain in the comparable 12 month period for all years including non-election years.

Sep 05 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Sep 5, 2004

Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

Aug 04 2004

View From The North Country

  • Aug 4, 2004

Terrorist threats, rising oil prices, the war in Iraq, and upcoming presidential election seem to have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum.

Aug 04 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Aug 4, 2004

Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

Jul 04 2004

The "Wait and See" Market

  • Jul 4, 2004

It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.

May 05 2004

Market Mood Swings

  • May 5, 2004

Bull market still intact, but investor appetite for risk remains subdued. April’s preference was for defensive and conservative strategies. Old axiom “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t seem to apply during the 130 days leading up to election day.

Sep 08 1998

View From the North Country

  • Sep 8, 1998

Bear market or steep correction? Rising inflation could actually be good for equity market over next few years. FASB arrives at a decision which could spell the end to the repricing options practice by making it prohibitively expensive.

Jun 05 1994

Today’s Fiscal Felons and Fiscal Heroes: a 1994 Voting Guide

  • Jun 5, 1994

From Alabama to Wyoming, our Senators and House members are rated for fiscal responsibility based on a study by The Concord Coalition. See how yours rank.

May 05 1992

Major Trend Index Shifts to “Negative” In April

  • May 5, 1992

On Monday April 6th, The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index downshifted from “neutral” status to “negative” status. The prudent course is a move to the sidelines, becoming a spectator for a while.

Apr 01 1984

View from the North Country

  • Apr 1, 1984

The clock is ticking down, but we don’t know when the upside explosion will take place. It might even occur before the 1984 elections. Whatever, the investment rewards will be rich indeed. Should investors really run the risk of being out of the bond market? Really, the downside risk, considering the earning power of the coupons, is probably negligible. But the potential rewards are mouthwatering.