GDP Growth
The Case For “Five Percent”
Forecasting GDP is hardly our forte, but 2021 should see a very big gain in real output. Our current guess is for real GDP to grow 5% this year. Statistically, though, that doesn’t imply that the stock market’s move will also be large (or even of the same “sign”).
Stocks And GDP
Economists argue the best thing the stock market has going for it is the continuation of the U.S. economic expansion. Maybe.
Is A Strengthening Dollar A Form Of Policy Tightening?
.jpg?fit=fillmax&w=222&bg=FFFFFF)
Executive summary (for those leaving early for the holiday weekend): No.
We’ve found no reliable relationship between swings in the U.S. Dollar and subsequent variations in U.S. economic growth.
Who Doesn’t Love “Excess” Money?
We’d concede the monetary backdrop for stocks is now mixed, an upgrade from the almost uniformly negative environment of last fall. On the negative side, the U.S. yield curve inversion has now persisted long enough that even the economic optimists are getting nervous.
Inveighing Against The Inversion
Some recent headlines are word-for-word regurgitations of those published in response to the early-2006 yield curve inversion. In that case, the naysayers were temporarily correct, as both the U.S. economy and stock market pushed higher for another year and a half before rolling over.