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Feb 07 2023

The Economy Rallied In January, Too

  • Feb 7, 2023

The narrative for January’s strong stock market bounce is that not all key economic releases looked to be forecasting a recession. However, one must consider that this was only true for coincident and lagging data series.

Jun 07 2022

The Housing Market Is A Trip!

  • Jun 7, 2022

In mid-May, S&P 500 Homebuilders officially became a COVID “round-tripper”: After a one-month COVID collapse of 53% and an ensuing rally of almost 250%, this year’s selloff drove Homebuilders to a May 11th close that was a few ticks below its pre-COVID high. Imagine what might happen if the housing market cracks? 

Jun 05 2021

Housing: Saner Than You Think

  • Jun 5, 2021

On a technical basis, Homebuilding stocks have only just emerged from their decade-long post-bubble bust. With P/B 24% below the mid-2005 peak and 15% below the “overvalued” threshold, they look reasonably priced in a world that’s almost entirely devoid of value.

Oct 07 2020

Homebuilders: The Weird And Unexpected

  • Oct 7, 2020

Like many years, 2020 is one in which an investor who was armed with a perfect economic forecast would have been befuddled by stock market action. Who would have imagined that passive equity investors (including many posing as Wall Street strategists) would be so well-rewarded for ignoring the economic downturn?  

Jan 08 2019

Housing Affordability & Homebuilding Stocks

  • Jan 8, 2019

The Homebuilding stocks represent another Consumer Discretionary group ranking Attractive via our GS Scores; we have held the Homebuilding group for the last year and a half. Homebuilders is an extremely rate-conscious industry group given mortgage rates’ impact on housing affordability (and thus, demand).

Nov 07 2017

Homebuilding Stocks—Still Time To Buy?

  • Nov 7, 2017

Homebuilding Stocks Are On A Stellar Run—Can The Streak Continue?

Aug 07 2015

Homebuilding, More Than Just Curb Appeal?

  • Aug 7, 2015

While this Consumer Discretionary group has not experienced six-plus-years of market outperformance, we think it may be poised for a late-game bounce. An overall lack of housing options may be just what this industry needs to give it a long-awaited boost.

Jun 05 2015

Housing: Curb Your Enthusiasm

  • Jun 5, 2015

Despite record low mortgage rates and pressure to re-loosen down payment and lending requirements, single family housing starts have yet to recover to levels consistent with even the average recession trough.

Jan 08 2014

The Dreams & Nightmares Of 2013

  • Jan 8, 2014

For 25 years we’ve tracked hypothetical industry group portfolios comprised of the previous year’s “Dreams” (20 best performers) and “Nightmares” (20 worst performers).

Oct 08 2013

Housing: Just Like The Bubbles Before It

  • Oct 8, 2013

Sectors that become the object of obsession during one economic cycle tend to remain cyclically depressed in the following one.

Aug 07 2013

Handicapping The High In Housing

  • Aug 7, 2013

Today it seems taken for granted that the great housing meltdown of 2006-2010 was sufficient to purge the last decade’s excesses, and that housing can now be relied upon as one of the drivers of a slow but elongated U.S. economic expansion.

Nov 05 2011

Rates Too High For A Housing Rebound?

  • Nov 5, 2011

Are mortgage rates still too high for a rebound when looking at real mortgage rates?

Feb 02 2010

What Keeps Us Up At Night

  • Feb 2, 2010

We consider it incredible that most of the leading economic indicators have staged such traditional V-shaped rebounds with virtually no boost from the housing sector.

Apr 04 2009

A Ray Of Hope For Housing

  • Apr 4, 2009

If the November lows in the Homebuilders holds, based on the leading relationship between stocks and starts, an upturn in housing starts (not the broader economy) should be imminent.

Mar 05 2008

Housing Fallout: Here’s A “Window” That Isn’t Broken Or Boarded Up...

  • Mar 5, 2008

Following patterns of past burst bubbles, Homebuilders seem poised to rally.


Dec 05 2007

A Discount Shopping Guide To Banks And Homebuilders

  • Dec 5, 2007

With a heavily promotional holiday shopping season underway, we feel compelled to join the fray by looking at the big markdowns in U.S. homebuilding and bank stocks.

Nov 05 2007

Homebuilders.....Watching The “Window”

  • Nov 5, 2007

Not all gloom and doom this month...Homebuilders approaching window where past busted bubbles have bounced.

Sep 05 2007

Housing: Still Too Early To Invest (Or To Build)

  • Sep 5, 2007

It’s still too early, but at some point in the next 6 to 18 months, going long the homebuilders will probably become the single most contrarian—and potentially highly profitable—thing to do.  But before that happens, we expect to see more blood in the streets.

Aug 05 2006

The Homebuilding Group – Value Play Or Value Trap?

  • Aug 5, 2006

Everybody sure hates the Homebuilders. However, contrarians should take note of this month’s analysis of earnings prospects, insider selling/buying, and the outlook for future housing starts. Now is not the time to be bottom fishing here.

Dec 04 2002

Answering Client Questions

  • Dec 4, 2002

Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from November’s client meetings in San Francisco.