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Inflation-adjusted “Real”

Jul 08 2022

Remember When?

  • Jul 8, 2022

Remember the good old days (like even a year ago) when one didn’t need to mentally tabulate investment results in inflation-adjusted terms? For a blissful couple of decades, nominal and real returns were so close together that the latter figure seemed irrelevant.

Jan 28 2022

Small Caps’ Three-Year Ride To Nowhere

  • Jan 28, 2022

Yesterday, the Russell 2000 closed down 20.9% from its November 8th high, and market bulls have conceded it was “due” for a pullback after a 146% gain off the March-2020 COVID lows.

The Russell’s decline is moderate by the historical high-beta standards of Small Caps. However, this drop—combined with other developments transpiring over the last few years—has produced a shocking result: The Russell 2000 is now unchanged on an inflation-adjusted basis since its “Quantitative-Tightening Top” of August 31, 2018. But what a three-year ride it’s been!

Oct 07 2016

Only The Shadow Knows

  • Oct 7, 2016

If the above observation from almost a century ago remains on the mark (as it has for almost a century), then both the cyclical bull market and accompanying economic expansion should remain in force during the next several months.

Sep 09 2015

Recession? Too Early To Call

  • Sep 9, 2015

Among the various arguments put forward by those believing the recent decline is no more than a correction, the most difficult for us to address is the common claim that “there’s no recession on the horizon.”

Nov 07 2013

Little To Complain About

  • Nov 7, 2013

From a pure price action perspective, it’s difficult to find cracks in the bull market’s edifice.