Research.LeutholdGroup

This “decade in review” edition examines the performance of sectors and industries, looking at the best and worst groups to reveal the stories they have to tell.

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For the sixth consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

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The stock market “melt up” scenario is underway but has proven less broad than we expected. Just as in the late-1990s, Technology and NASDAQ are the main subjects of investor adulation.

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Although the glamorous Tech giants have captured investors’ attention of late, from our perspective, the old school, physical Semiconductor plays hold the greatest appeal.

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The S&P 500 eclipsed the “Twin Peaks” (2000 and 2007 highs) in 2013, and two years later the NASDAQ topped its 2000 high.

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Bubble groups rarely return as market leaders until after experiencing a prolonged trading range pattern. Technology currently appears to have paid its dues and could develop into the next market leader.

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• Our quantitative work on technology remains poor, and only a single tech subgroup—Technology Distributors—makes our current Attractive list.  Per the Group Selection disciplines, there are currently no technology stocks in our Select Industries portfolio.
• Tech’s underperformance has helped restore better relative value to the sector, but valuations aren’t yet cheap enough for a big “reversion-to-the mean” bet.

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Looking for Q4 tactical trading opportunities in Tech.

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NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.

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GS Scores for Tech groups have been fading in recent months, with only one Tech group now viewed as Attractive. The quantitative deterioration prompted us to reduce portfolio Tech exposure.

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The broad Tech sector has rallied significantly from lows and is not cheap by tradi­tional valuation measures. Upside driver must be earnings momentum, which contin­ues to be strong.

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Technology stocks rebound off late September sell off. The NASDAQ records its thirdbest month this year (+8.1%), and is now up 44.7% YTD.

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Technology stocks retreat in late September. The NASDAQ records its first down month this year (–1.3%), but finished Q3 up 10.1%.

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Still overweight Info Tech, but stock selection likely to get tougher in coming months.

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This may be one of the few sectors that has the opportunity to provide 20% or more growth in 2003. If inves­tors can get over their fears, they could be rewarded by the Tech sector.

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Technology stocks UP BIG AGAIN in May. The NASDAQ gained 9.0% for the month (9.2% last month), second again only to the Russell 2000.

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Technology stocks up BIG in April. The NASDAQ gained 9.2% for the month, secondonly to the Russell 2000 in terms of performance.

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The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures.

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For the second month in a row, the NASDAQ was the best performing major index.

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The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures. Upside driver will have to be new earnings momentum developing.

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Technology stocks retreat in December, as our broad tech index lost 16.0%.  However for all of Q4 Tech was up 33%.

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Technology stocks soar again as our broad tech index gained 26.4% in November.

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October provided welcomed relief for technology stock investors. After an average loss of 18% for tech stocks in September, the October rebound came along and more than made up for the loss in most cases.

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Still extremely risky area of equities, but recovery may be near. Currently rank six tech groups “Attractive”.

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Stock selection and small cap focus have provided the only hopes of surviving this decimated sector.

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Fundamentals continue to build for technology, but prices yet to react…..Evidence that tech fundamentals are now improving.

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Fundamentals continue to build for technology, but prices still not cheap. Semiconductors continue to show stabilization. Japanese shipments above median for first time in over a year.

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Book to Bill ratio continues to improve. Some solid evidence that the prospects for the chipmakers are looking up.

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Time to buy Semiconductors? Some early evidence that the prospects for the chipmakers are looking up.

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Tech still down big from all time highs, but still not cheap. Upside driver will have to be new earnings momentum developing.

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S&P Tech clobbered in February, but median PE ratio still rising for 6th straight month as almost half of our tech index has no earnings.

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S&P Tech up slightly in January, but median PE ratio rises for 5th straight month as poor earnings are reported.

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S&P Tech remained flat in December, but P/E ratios continue to climb as poor earnings are reported.

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Tech soared again in November despite cratering earnings.

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From a much lower base, at least some tech stocks could once again become earnings momentum plays.

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Tech stocks came roaring back in April (Info Tech sector up 22%), but don’t expect another parabolic rise!

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Here is a sector we have recently added to our stable for tracking purposes.

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