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Major Trend

Apr 08 2021

Introducing The “New” MTI

  • Apr 8, 2021

We launched a revamped version of our Major Trend Index. The objective of the new methodology is to increase the flexibility, and even the subjectivity of the MTI. This approach recognizes the “subjective reality,” without forcing us into the tedium of re-weighting sub-factors if they become more or less critical as market dynamics evolve.

Mar 07 2018

The Correction That Scared No One

  • Mar 7, 2018

The setback from the January 26th market peak represents the ninth correction of 7% or more since 2009, the most ever recorded during a single cyclical bull market.

Feb 07 2018

Most Likely Just A Correction

  • Feb 7, 2018

So, what happened to the January Barometer—the old analyst’s maxim that a market gain in January portends a gain for the full year?

Nov 15 2016

MTI Rose 0.01 Points To 1.20

  • Nov 15, 2016

The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 points to 1.20 in the week ended November 11th, with big swings within the MTI’s five factor categories essentially cancelling one another out. Net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds remains at its 63% target, with no changes made in recent weeks. It’s clear, as one pundit put it, investors are betting on “tax-cut Trump” rather than “trade-war” Trump.


Oct 25 2016

MTI Declined 0.01 Points To 1.29

  • Oct 25, 2016

The Major Trend Index declined 0.01 points to a ratio of 1.29 in the week ended October 21st, marking the 12th consecutive week the Index has been above the 1.20 level.

Jun 02 2016

MTI Pushes To 3-Year High

  • Jun 2, 2016

The Major Trend Index pushed further into bullish territory based on data through last week, rising 0.09 points to a three-year high 1.22 ratio. Improvement in both the Momentum and Economic categories drove the gain. In addition, there were positive developments based on yesterday’s month-end prices that will be captured in the next MTI reading.

Apr 06 2016

MTI Climbs To High End Of Neutral Zone

  • Apr 6, 2016

This bullish action forced us to reverse a small mid-month addition to our equity hedge, and net equity exposure in the Leuthold Core and Global Funds is now 46%.

Mar 07 2016

MTI Negative, But Improving

  • Mar 7, 2016

The Major Trend Index rose 0.10 points over the last five weeks. Despite its improvement, the underlying message is that a cyclical bear market remains underway.

Mar 03 2016

MTI Negative; Market Rally Remains Intact

  • Mar 3, 2016

The Major Trend Index ticked down 0.01 point to a ratio of 0.86 using data for the week ended February 26th. Losses in our sentiment and valuation work offset the technical improvement that had stemmed from recent market gains. The economic category stabilized following a multi-week slide, although there’s no sign the current earnings recession has begun to abate. 

Feb 25 2016

MTI Negative, Bear Market Rally Underway

  • Feb 25, 2016

For the second week in a row, the Major Trend Index gained 0.02 points to close at a ratio of 0.87 using data for the week ended February 19th. We believe a bear market rally remains underway and have positioned the Leuthold Core and Global Funds with net equity exposure of 42%, compared with levels near 32% in the third week of January.

Feb 19 2016

MTI Negative, But Don't Rule Out Near Term Rally

  • Feb 19, 2016

Based on data for the week ended February 12th, the Major Trend Index rose 0.02 points to a ratio of 0.85, as a handful of positive technical developments pulled up the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category by 100 points. Those developments were part of what triggered us to cover another portion of our equity hedge last week. That move, and subsequent market action, have brought net equity exposure in the Leuthold Core and Global Funds to about 42%, up from as low as 32% in the third week of January.

Aug 07 2015

On High Alert

  • Aug 7, 2015

August is “National Eye Exam Month,” but this is the rare year we can confidently recommend that you skip it.

Aug 07 2015

Stock Market Observations

  • Aug 7, 2015

The U.S. stock market has largely shrugged off the latest round of worries related to China’s stock market collapse, the new down-leg in crude oil, a more hawkish tone in Fed-speak, and sizable second-quarter declines in S&P 500 sales and earnings.

Jul 08 2015

Summer Trouble?

  • Jul 8, 2015

New late-June highs in NASDAQ, Small Caps, and key Financial groups weren’t enough to stem the past few weeks’ slide in the Major Trend Index, which has landed back in its neutral zone (1.01 reading).

Jul 08 2015

A Venerable Monetary Indicator Turned Negative

  • Jul 8, 2015

The smoothed, 26-week rate-of-change in the DJ Corporate Bond Index, a reliable indicator of monetary conditions over many different market and economic cycles, turned negative in mid-June.

Jun 05 2015

MTI Declines In May Despite New Market Highs

  • Jun 5, 2015

The MTI dropped to 1.08 in May, despite a move by the DJIA and S&P 500 to new cycle highs. Net equity exposure remains around 61% in the Core and Global Funds.

Dec 05 2014

MTI Range-Bound In Neutral Zone Throughout November

  • Dec 5, 2014

We don’t yet know whether our second-half adjustments to equity exposure will prove premature or just plain wrong. Our tactical funds remain positioned with below-average net equity exposure of about 50%.

Sep 09 2014

Major Trend Index Remains In Neutral Territory

  • Sep 9, 2014

The weaker pattern of MTI readings since August 1st supports the reduced net equity exposure in our tactical portfolios (targeting 55% net equities since early August).

Sep 10 2013

The MTI, And More Market Maxims...

  • Sep 10, 2013

Someday in the faraway future, in the midst of a low-volatility, peace-time bull market, we plan to write a Green Book “Of Special Interest” piece on the investment wisdom of Yogi Berra. “Ninety percent of the game is half mental.” Classic. “You can observe a lot by watching.” Words that I live by.